Cleveland Guardians' MLB Playoff chances surge during hot stretch

On the morning of September 2nd, the Cleveland Guardians’ season looked over.

They were seventh in the American League Wild Card race. They were more than 10 games out of the division race, including sitting third in the AL Central behind the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals. Fangraphs dipped the Guardians’ playoff odds to 2.5%, the lowest mark of the season.

The Guardians are 13-2 since that day, culminating in this week’s three game sweep of the Tigers. 

Cleveland’s playoff odds have surged to 26.3%, the highest mark since August 9th, which preceded a 3-10 stretch that knocked the Guardians down to a 4% chance to make the playoffs. With ten games to play, Cleveland sits 1.5 games behind Boston for the final Wild Card spot and 3.5 games behind Detroit for the division.

The Guardians head to Minnesota for four games this weekend before returning home to face Detroit and the Texas Rangers in three game sets to end the season. For next week to be as interesting to “scoreboard watch” as fans hope, winning three of four from the Twins this weekend is essential. 

Aside from the Guardians needing to do their part, they will need external help over the next week and a half. The Tigers, who have lost three straight and seven of ten, run into the red hot Braves, winners of their last five. Importantly, the Tigers top two starting pitchers, Tarik Skubal and Jack Flaherty lost to Cleveland the last two days, meaning the Braves will catch the weaker back half of the Tigers’ rotation.

While it has been a down year for many of Atlanta's starting pitchers, the arms facing Detroit have caught heat at the right time. Before getting smoked by the Hoston Astros his last time out, Bryce Elder had produced four straight starts allowing two earned runs or less. Spencer Strider, Sunday’s pitcher, has made four consecutive strong starts after an abysmal early August.

If the Braves’ pitchers can keep the Tigers at bay in these next three games, a strong weekend versus Minnesota (four games) for Cleveland could even knock the “half game” off Cleveland’s trail in the standings.