Connelly Early update leaves Nationals trade swing in doubt

Mark Zuckerman, of NatsJournal.com, says it's going to be at least a week until the 24-year-old even begins his rehab assignment.

It's fair to question whether that expectation for an Early return is reasonable. 

An elbow issue for a young pitcher is always going to raise fears, and how well the Red Sox handled Early's "discomfort," as they called it at the time, could have a domino effect on the lefty's potential in Washington going forward.

With a 2027 MLB lockout looming, time is of the essence to salvage something out of Early's progression and development. 

The southpaw hit the ground running last year, striking out 11 in five scoreless innings in his MLB debut. But Early has seen a fall back to earth this season, posting a 3.44 ERA and 4.62 FIP over 17 starts, up from 2.33 and 0.91 respectively in just four regular-season starts in 2025. 

That larger sample size has also exposed some concerns in the under-the-hood metrics, with Baseball Savant showing an xERA of 4.33 before Early went down this year, putting him at a paltry 38th percentile in the majors. 

If Early's 2026 return hits any snags, the lefty could find himself stuck on a major league roster with nowhere to go as owners and the MLBPA hash out a new CBA, with interferences with spring training and missed games to start the season on the table as of now.

Plenty of questions have been raised in the other direction regarding how sustainable Mead's own 2026 breakout will prove to be now that the Aussie finds himself in Fenway. But for Nats fans still reeling from Jake Bennett's early success in Boston, the concerns around Early's elbow will leave many wondering whether Craig Breslow may have pulled the wool over Paul Toboni's eyes yet again.