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Contact! Monday's Base Hit Builder

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By John Laghezza | Last updated Jun 16, 2025 11:57 AM ET

More fun with numbers as I take you through today's best bets for a base knock. We'll isolate today's MLB slate's pitch-to-contact SPs and which hitters they'll face who've frequently put quality balls in play over the last two weeks (min 40 PAs).

** SATURDAY'S THREE-LEG BASE HIT PARLAY CASHED — HEAVE HO, TWO IN A ROW!

Today's SP Contact Targets (+89% Zone-Contact & +45% Hard Hit Rates)

BOS Lucas Giolito — 91.8% Zone-Contact, 46.1% Hard Hit
WSH Jake Irvin — 90.8% Zone-Contact, 45.8% Hard Hit
LAA Jose Soriano — 89.3% Zone-Contact, 45.1% Hard Hit
HOU Lance McCullers Jr. — 88.7% Zone-Contact, 53.8% Hard Hit

All Opposing Hitters w/+80% Contact, +40% Hard Hit, & +.290 Expected Batting Average

SEA JP Crawford — 40 PA vs. RHP; +84% Contact, +42% Hard Hit & +.398 Expected Batting Average
SEA Dominic Canzone — 20 PA vs. RHP; +81% Contact, +57% Hard Hit & +.310 Expected Batting Average
COL Tyler Freeman — 35 PA vs. RHP; +94% Contact, +40% Hard Hit & +.384 Expected Batting Average
NYY Ben Rice — 26 PA vs. RHP; +92% Contact, +54% Hard Hit & +.368 Expected Batting Average
TB Jon Aranda — 42 PA vs. RHP; +80% Contact, +52% Hard Hit & +.355 Expected Batting Average

LAGHEZZAS LEANS:

Intentionally setting all the parameters really high on both sides of our base hit matrix leaves us with just a handful of results per slate — but I gotta say I love every one of these guys for a hit today.

Our keep it simple methodology sets a nice low bar to clear in a really difficult hitter market. Players only get a small handful of at-bats every game, where a couple of walks and a HBP could otherwise ruin your day.

TODAY'S ACTION: FIVE-LEG BASE HIT PARLAY (+742) on Fanduel

JP Crawford, Dominic Canzone, Tyler Freeman, Ben Rice, and Jon Aranda

BET SMALL, BET SMART, BET RESPONSIBLY

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This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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