Contact! Wednesday's Base Hit Builder

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By John Laghezza | Last updated Jun 18, 2025 11:24 AM ET

More fun with numbers as I take you through today's best bets for a base knock. We'll isolate today's MLB slate's pitch-to-contact SPs and which hitters they'll face who've frequently put quality balls in play over the last two weeks (min 20 PAs).

Hat tip to Luis Garcia, Marcus Semien, and Bo Bichette for getting our (+154) base hit parlay to the window last night!

Today's SP Contact Targets (+89% Zone-Contact & +45% Hard Hit Rates)

SD Stephen Kolek — 46.1 IP; 92.8% Zone-Contact, 48.9% Hard Hit vs. LAD
COL German Marquez — 68.0 IP; 92.6% Zone-Contact, 46.7% Hard Hit vs. WSH
LAA Jack Kochanowicz — 71.2 IP; 91.9% Zone-Contact, 49.3% Hard Hit vs. NYY
ATH Luis Severino — 90.2 IP; 89.8% Zone-Contact, 42.6% Hard Hit vs. HOU

All Opposing Hitters w/+80% Contact, +40% Hard Hit, & +.270 Expected Batting Average

WAS Luis Garcia — 45 PA; +80% Contact, +46% Hard Hit & +.368 Expected Batting Average
NYY Ben Rice — 45 PA; +80% Contact, +46% Hard Hit & +.295 Expected Batting Average
HOU Isaac Paredes — 45 PA; +84% Contact, +41% Hard Hit & +.233 Expected Batting Average (Made an xBA exception for the .398 xwOBA and 14% Barrel rate)

LAGHEZZAS LEANS:

Intentionally setting all the parameters really high on both sides of our base hit matrix leaves us with just a handful of results per slate — but I gotta say I love every one of these guys for a hit today.

Our keep it simple methodology sets a nice low bar to clear in a really difficult hitter market. Players only get a small handful of at-bats every game, where a couple of walks and a HBP could otherwise ruin your day.

TODAY'S ACTION: THREE-LEG BASE HIT PARLAY (+145) on Fanduel

Luis Garcia, Ben Rice, and Isaac Paredes

BET SMALL, BET SMART, BET RESPONSIBLY

Thanks so much for reading — If you're interested in upping your analytical game, come check out my best-selling MLB/NFL Betting & Fantasy Data Substack page.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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