Three weeks out from the trade deadline, it's hard to nail down where the Kansas City Royals are headed.
If they keep playing like they did early this week against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Royals may well be buyers. But with the New York Mets, red-hot Miami Marlins, and Chicago Cubs on the horizon, things could change in an instant.
And though the Royals will say publicly that it doesn't sway the calculus, the fact is that they have the number-one starting pitcher every contender would want if he became available.
That pitcher is Seth Lugo, who The Athletic's Aaron Gleeman, Chad Jennings, and Tim Britton listed as the number-three asset on their recent "trade deadline big board." They assigned Lugo a yellow light on a traffic signal scale for the likelihood he gets dealt before Jul. 31.
Among the teams Gleeman, Jennings, and Britton listed as potential fits for Lugo? The Chicago Cubs, who are under as much pressure as any team to perform in October this year after acquiring superstar outfielder Kyle Tucker in his walk year.
"Lugo had a breakout season in 2024, pitching more than 200 innings with a 3.00 ERA and finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting. Now 35, his surface-level numbers are almost identical this year," the authors wrote.
"The pitch and batted ball data suggest he’s not been as good as a year ago, but Lugo has remained plenty effective. He has a player option for 2026 he’s unlikely to exercise barring injury, meaning the right-hander should be considered a rental."
Lugo, 35, has a 2.67 ERA in 17 starts this year, an even better mark than the 3.00 ERA he had as the Cy Young runner-up. He's a virtual lock to opt out of his $15 million salary for next season, which puts the Royals in a bind.
Either they trade him to a contending team and try to pilfer the farm system, or keep him and hope to make one more playoff push. Either way, the perils are great.
More MLB: Astros-Royals Blockbuster Trade Idea Sees KC Cut Ties With $45 Million All-Star
More must-reads:
Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!