Cubs PECOTA Projections Aren't Exactly Encouraging

Originally posted on On Tap Sports Net | By Bobby Foster | Last updated Feb 7, 2024 2:23 PM ET

With Spring Training just around the corner, Baseball Prospectus released its annual PECOTA projections. The 2024 outlook doesn't exactly give the Chicago Cubs favorable odds at a successful season.

The simulation calculates the Cubs at about 80.2 wins, giving them a 31.2% chance at making the playoffs, a 20.2% chance at winning the division, and an 11% chance at a wild card spot. Those odds are certainly disappointing for the North Side faithful after the Cubs shocked the baseball world by hiring Craig Counsell at the beginning of the offseason.

In 2023, the Cubs finished with 83 wins and nearly made the postseason. That competitive push came as a bit of a surprise after underwhelming finishes in the wake of dismantling the 2016 World Series core two seasons prior.

Unfinished Business

So what can the Cubs do to improve their outlook for a season with higher expectations? The offseason still isn't over. Roughly a month ago, Jed Hoyer said the team was "in the fourth or fifth inning" of the offseason. Surely the Cubs still have a few more moves up their sleeve... right?

Since Hoyer's remarks, the Cubs have signed former Houston Astros reliever Hector Neris and continue to lurk over Cody Bellinger's free agency. The North Siders desperately need a left-handed power bat to solidify their lineup.

Michael Busch is another intriguing offseason acquisition. The former Los Angeles Dodgers infielder is a player the Cubs brass has high hopes for after trading for him in early January.

So while the Cubs' PECOTA projections aren't overly favorable, a strong finish to the offseason can help improve the outlook. It wouldn't be the first time that the Cubs outperformed projections.

This article first appeared on On Tap Sports Net and was syndicated with permission.

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