Cubs reportedly 'determined' to trade pair of hitters

The Cubs are “determined” to trade one of first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger or outfielder Seiya Suzuki, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post, with the idea of then redirecting their cost savings to upgrade other parts of the roster. Per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, the Cubs have some interest in catchers Carson Kelly and Danny Jansen and relievers Andrew Chafin and Kirby Yates.

The Cubs have been seen as a logical candidate to move an outfielder due to having a fairly crowded mix on the grass. Pete Crow-Armstrong seemingly established himself as a viable glove-first center fielder this year, with the potential for huge value if his offense takes a step forward. For the corner spots, the Cubs have Bellinger, Suzuki and Ian Happ. Bellinger can also play some first base, but Michael Busch took that position and ran with it this year.

There are also some other options lurking just below those established big leaguers. Alexander Canario has just 45 major league plate appearances, but he has always hit well in Triple-A and is now out of options. Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie are on the 40-man roster and consensus top 100 prospects in the league. Alcántara made a brief MLB debut in 2024, while Caissie spent the whole season in Triple-A and played well, so both are arguably ready for some proper big-league playing time. Even with the designated hitter spot open, more guys than the Cubs have spots.

But untangling the knot comes with complications. The prospects and Crow-Armstrong are cheap and controllable, so the Cubs probably view them as part of the long-term solution, especially since the Happ/Bellinger/Suzuki trio are all slated for free agency after 2026, with Bellinger able to opt out of his deal after 2025. However, Happ and Suzuki have no trade clauses, making it difficult to move them.

Bellinger is also difficult to trade on account of that opt-out. The best-case scenario for the Cubs or an acquiring club is that he plays well in 2025 and leaves, but even that wouldn’t be cheap. He will make $27.5M in 2025 and then get to choose between a $5M buyout and a $25M salary in 2026. That means even a one-and-done from Bellinger in 2025 will cost $32.5M. Teams may have some willingness to take a chance on Bellinger bouncing back from a middling 2024 campaign, but the downside is that he doesn’t quite get back into form and sticks around for 2026. In that scenario, the acquiring team would be on the hook for $52.5M over two years for a struggling player.

At this point, it’s anyone’s guess which version of Bellinger will show up next year, given his up-and-down career. He won an MVP award earlier in his career but then suffered a few miserable seasons, perhaps struggling to get healthy after a notable shoulder surgery. He bounced back with the Cubs in 2023, hitting 26 home runs, slashing .307/.356/.525 and stealing 20 bases. FanGraphs credited him with 4.4 wins above replacement in 130 games. He played the same number of games in 2024 but with his fWAR cut in half to 2.2. His home run tally dropped to 18, he stole nine bases and played less time in center field as Crow-Armstrong took over that spot.

Lining up with another club on a trade could be difficult, but it’s still possible. At the start of the offseason, we put Bellinger on our list of likely trade candidates, though with a spot near the bottom as a reflection of the complications. It was reported this week that the Yankees, Mariners and Astros have checked in about him.

With Suzuki, this is the first suggestion that he is available, and he will surely draw interest. In his 381 major league games thus far, he has hit 55 home runs and drawn walks at a 10.2% clip. His .278/.354/.470 batting line translates to a 129 wRC+ and he has seemingly been getting better over time. His home run total has gone from 14 to 20 and then 21 in his three seasons, with his walk rate climbing year-over-year from 9.4% to 10.1% and then 10.8%. As such, his wRC+ has gone from 118 in his rookie season to 128 and then 138.

Suzuki isn’t considered a strong defender, and the advanced metrics are mixed on exactly where to rank him. He has -5 Outs Above Average to this point, but Defensive Runs Saved has him at league average overall and with apparent improvements. He had -4 DRS in his rookie season and then +2 in each subsequent campaign to get back to par.

Regardless, the bat should make him appealing, and his contract should not be onerous. He will make $18M in the next two years, his age-30 and -31 campaigns, for a total guarantee of $36M. Comparable free agents are likely to earn far more than that on the open market. MLBTR predicted that Anthony Santander could secure a contract of $80M over four years, with guys like Teoscar Hernández, Jurickson Profar and Tyler O’Neill projected for the $40-60M range.

As mentioned, Suzuki has a full no-trade clause. That naturally complicates the possibility of a trade, as the Cubs would be limited in their discussions to whatever clubs Suzuki would be willing to join, and it’s unknown what his preferences are or might be. The Cubs will presumably have discussions with Suzuki and various suitors to see what possibilities exist for them. If a deal can come together, it would open up some playing time for their prospects while freeing up cash for other pursuits.

It doesn’t appear the budget is especially tight right now. RosterResource has the Cubs projected for a $185M payroll, well below last year’s Opening Day mark of $214M, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Perhaps the Cubs plan to keep spending a bit tight this offseason, as many predicted them to pursue a notable rotation upgrade such as Corbin Burnes or Max Fried. But they recently agreed to a two-year, $29M deal with Matthew Boyd, a notable expense far less than Burnes or Fried is expected to earn.

The club is known to be looking for help behind the plate, and Kelly and Jansen are two of the better names available in free agency. Kelly has generally paired some solid defense with passable offense in his career. Though his bat has gone up and down a bit, he has a .224/.307/.373 batting line in his career for a wRC+ of 85. On the other hand, Jansen had a long stretch as a great hitter but is coming into free agency on a down note. He hit .237/.317/.487 for a wRC+ of 121 from 2021 to 2023 and got out to a roaring start in 2024 as well but then slashed .158/.274/.243 for a wRC+ of 53 after May.

MLBTR predicted a two-year, $20M guarantee for Jansen as part of our Top 50 free agents list, with Kelly in the honorable mention section. Either should easily fit into Chicago’s budget with or without an outfield trade.

Chafin and Yates align with the Cubs and their aversion to notable deals for relievers, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Since Jed Hoyer took over as president of baseball operations, the club has never given a multi-year deal to a free-agent reliever. Last year’s $9M one-year deal for Héctor Neris was the first time Hoyer went beyond $5M for a bullpen signing.

Yates wrapped up a tremendous season, tossing 61 2/3 innings with a 1.17 earned run average and 35.9% strikeout rate. But since he’s turning 38 years old in March and has a notable injury history, he will likely be limited to a one-year deal. Though only slightly, MLBTR’s $14M projection would be new territory for Hoyer. Chafin has been a solid bullpen lefty for over a decade, with a 3.42 ERA in 601 appearances. His last two trips to free agency have resulted in one-year deals of $6.3M and then $4.8M.