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Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly pours beer over general manager Mike Hazen during celebrations after clinching a wild-card playoff spot following their game with the Houston Astros at Chase Field in Phoenix on Sept. 30, 2023. Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

D-backs Playoff Odds Revealed Heading Into Spring Training

Originally posted on Arizona Diamondbacks on SI
By Jack Sommers | Last updated Feb 2, 2026 12:51 PM ET

The Arizona Diamondbacks are coming off a disappointing 2025 season in which they not only failed to make the playoffs, but finished below .500 with an 80-82 record. The team sold off almost all their veterans on expiring contracts at the July 30 trade deadline.

A surprising resurgence following the trade deadline put the team in position to compete for a Wild Card spot up until the last weekend of the season, however. That development came about as a result of continued excellence from their remaining young stars and some encouraging performances by young players getting a chance to play.

This kind of result likely influenced the team's strategy heading into the 2025-26 offseason. Once they abandoned the idea of trading superstar Ketel Marte, they've adopted a conservative approach.

This is due in part to the fact there are four key players tying up over $50 million in payroll starting the year on the injured list and likely to miss the first half of the season.

That fact, coupled with a reduced payroll budget overall, means there have been few high-impact deals. That doesn't mean they've done nothing. Bringing back Merrill Kelly and James McCann are widely viewed as very positive moves.

But outside of that the remaining moves have been on the periphery, looking for value deals on players such as Michael Soroka, Taylor Clarke, and a number of minor league signings. So where does that leave the team?

The Diamondbacks Are Projected to be a .500 Team in 2026

Fangraphs has come out with their playoff odds report. This is based on simulations run off the average of Steamer and ZiPS projections. The Diamondbacks are projected for 81.2 wins and 80.8 losses, or in other words, .500.

Jack Sommers

The Dodgers are the overwhelming favorite to take the division, with just under 100 wins projected and a 94% chance to win the NL West. The Giants, Diamondbacks, and Padres are separated by just a win or two in these projected standings, the equivalent of a coin toss.

The D-backs playoff odds in this scenario are 31%, with just 2% chance of upsetting the Dodgers for the division.

That said, just like the actual standings each year, that third Wild Card spot looks tantalizingly close. The Milwaukee Brewers sit in the final playoff position with just 1.6 wins more than the D-backs.

Arizona may still make a couple of roster moves in the run up to spring training. That could include a trade for another reliever, and signing a right-handed first base platoonmate for Pavin Smith. Neither of those moves are expected to move the projection needle much, however.

Barring a big splash move, such as bringing back Zac Gallen, these projections are unlikely to massive change heading into the season.

It should also be noted that the Fangraphs depth chart already includes playing time for the returning injured players. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is projected for 380 plate appearances. Corbin Burnes (39 IP), A.J. Puk (40 IP), and Justin Martinez (31 IP) are already baked in.

American League Parity

The American League projects to have more parity than the National League. In fact the team with the best win projection is the Mariners, with 86.3, followed closely by the Yankees who are projected to win 86 games.

It's notable that based on these projections, all three AL Wild Cards are projected to come from the East Division (Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Orioles). That seems unlikely from a practical sense, but it illustrates the overall strength of that division heading into Spring Training.