Despite recent success, Cleveland Guardians playoff chances remain thin

Fangraphs one of the leading baseball statistical sites listed the Guardians playoff odds at just 11.3%, an incredible increase since the beginning of the month.

On September 1, the odds were at just 2.9% as the Guardians were in third place and sitting at 68-68. The Guardians have been incredibly hot winning nine out of their last ten games, showcasing the gritty version of the team known as "Guards Ball" that has become synonymous with manager Stephen Vogt.

The journey from mediocrity and near irrelevance is not yet completed however, the Guardians sit three games behind Houston for the final wildcard spot in the American League. To close out the season Cleveland has six incredibly critical games against the Detroit Tigers (the best team in the AL all season long), three incredibly winnable games against a Minnesota Twins team who are in a rebuild, and finish with three games against a surging Texas Rangers team who are currently tied with Cleveland for the final wild card spot.

The Houston Astros, who the Guardians are attempting to chase down are in the middle of a three game set with the Rangers, then they have three with the Seattle Mariners (who the 'Stros are attempting to overtake for a division lead), followed by three with the late season surprise Athletics and the atrocious Anaheim Angels. Objectively an easier schedule for the Astros playing two teams with losing records while Cleveland has to face three out of four opponents with winning records.

Because it is baseball, and anything can happen, it is hard to say for sure what it would take to get the Guardians definitively in to the playoffs. One thing is for absolute certainty and that is that the two series over the next nine days against the Tigers are crucial. And the coaching staff is making moves that represent that, bumping up Gavin Williams to face Jack Flaherty in tomorrow's game and Tanner Bibee to start Thursday against presumptive AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal.

The issue for the Guardians is that they do not currently hold any tiebreakers over AL teams that are in the hunt for the final wild card spot should Houston overtake Seattle and win the AL West (Mariners, Rangers, Red Sox or the Yankees). What is more concerning is that Cleveland would flat out lose the tiebreakers to Seattle or Boston and they currently are 0-3 against Texas meaning that final series of the year could make or break the Guardians season.

In what has been an up and down season for Cleveland baseball fans, there can be no question that this team fights as hard as any team in baseball, despite being given multiple opportunities including but not limited to; losing players due to a gambling scandal and selling both in the offseason and again at the trade deadline.

That is a quality that can absolutely lead to a deep playoff run in the ever unpredictable tournament that is the MLB playoffs. The Guardians certainly are a mind boggling team for prognosticators both in and outside of the The Land but that is what makes them so entertaining. As Tom Hamilton likes to say, Cleveland you may yet again have an October to remember should these punchy Guards fight their way into the dance despite all odds.

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