Detroit Tigers Cold Streak: Free Fall or Phase?

Remember before the season when everyone thought the Tigers needed more offense added to this lineup? Well, I think that need was always there, but the unsustainable play of a few unexpected players masked it, at least for some time.

As I wrote in my Tigers deadline preview, Detroit was relying on too many players playing far above their three-year norms. The offensive problems looked to be gone, but regression was always more likely than not.

Over the past month, Detroit has eight players with a .650 OPS or worse: Spencer Torkelson (.550), Gleyber Torres (.627), Parker Meadows (.479), Wenceel Pérez (.447), Javier Báez (.436), Matt Vierling (.522), Jahmai Jones (.641), and Trey Sweeney (.465). Oh yeah, league average is around .715. Yikes.

Not to mention, Riley Greene and Zach McKinstry have been worse than their standard in that same time frame. In fact, the only position players who have really stood out in the past month are Dillon Dingler and Jake Rogers (in a tiny sample).

On one hand, this many players performing this poorly all at once is unlikely to continue. There will be some positive regression. Still, that will not fix the black eye that this offense has. I’m sure Torres will be better, Torkelson, too. Other than that? I’m not fully confident.

The return of Meadows and Vierling a month ago was supposed to take this offense to another level. Instead, each has struggled to produce.

Meadows has made no offensive impact and looks much closer to the hitter he was in the first half of 2024 than the All-Star level player we saw late last season. While I’d love to say he’ll bounce back, we’ve seen more bad Meadows than good Meadows in his short career.

I think we can all agree Báez was going to cool off at some point. The advanced metrics were far too similar from years prior to fully buy into a turnaround. Sweeney can’t hit enough, and Pérez, once again, started off hot and cooled, just like last season.

Without a doubt, help is needed. No, I do not think the Tigers’ offense has suddenly become awful, but additions were needed even before this skid. Relying on this many players without a legitimate track record was always risky.

Pitching Problems

The Tigers’ rotation still has the best pitcher in the game in Tarik Skubal. I personally trust Reese Olson, even after that bad outing last time out. I still am buying into Casey Mize being a better pitcher than in years prior, as well.

The primary issue with the rotation has been Jack Flaherty‘s inconsistency and inability to match last season’s output.

Before I go too deep, I must say the Flaherty complaints have gone a bit too far. He’s not been as sharp as last season, but he’s not as bad as many people have made him out to be. A 4.29 FIP and 4.09 xERA with 11.29 K/9 is still perfectly fine, but watching Flaherty doesn’t give you the same comfort as before.

His command has not been nearly as sharp, which has led to more walks and shaky outings. Even when he does get out of a jam, you are left feeling like it was more luck than anything. It’s as simple as this: More walks and harder contact have made us lose the trust we all had in him last season.

Could he turn it around? Sure. He’ll have to get his fastball back to where it was last season, though. He’s producing only a 17% whiff rate on the pitch compared to 24% last year, while allowing hard contact at a 9% higher rate than last season, resulting in more home runs on his fastball already than he allowed all of last season.

The Tigers’ bullpen magic from last season has run out. Will Vest is great, but you can only use him so often. Tommy Kahnle is more of a situational pitcher than a game-in, game-out high-leverage arm. The once-reliable Tyler Holton has been less dominant, leaving A.J. Hinch without many trustworthy options.

In my opinion, bullpen help is the team’s greatest need. How much do you trust rolling with Chase Lee, Luke Jackson, Dietrich Enns, Tyler Owens, Beau Brieske, Dylan Smith, and the rest of the ancillary pieces? Detroit needs an arm who can strike someone out while also inducing fear into a batter. Right now, they don’t have nearly enough of those.

The Deadline Can Make a Difference

Remember when everything was going right for the Tigers? They had a certain level of moxie to them. A level of confidence starting with Hinch and working its way down through every player. Well, that seems to have vanished.

Detroit needs an influx of talent. They don’t need to trade the whole farm and fix every single hole, because I do have faith in the core. But, adding a bat, beefing up the bullpen, and potentially rounding out the rotation are critical goals.

Although it is easy to play doomsday scenarios after a cold stretch, this Tigers team still earned their first-place position in the AL Central and has shown enough to force the front office into buying. We are not talking about a middling team in second place, but a team with a seven-game lead and deep playoff aspirations.

Nothing is guaranteed. Who knows how long Skubal will be here. Will Greene be mostly healthy in future years? When you are in the position the Tigers are in, you have to add and give this team a chance to make noise in the playoffs because you don’t know what next year looks like.

A spark. A shot in the arm. Proof that the front office and ownership believe in the product they have put on the field, and a belief that these players can bounce back.

Final Thoughts

I know it’s hard to believe during a cold streak, but I think the Tigers are going through a bad spell and did not fall off this drastically. Kerry Carpenter, who admittedly hasn’t had the same level of impact, is back in the middle of the lineup. I expect Greene, Torres, and Torkelson to rebound, to some extent.

Will this team win the World Series? Maybe not. But that does not mean they should not put their club in the best position to do so, cold streak or not. We have seen a lot more good baseball than bad since Opening Day. Give this team the jolt that they need and see if a winning streak isn’t around the corner.