Diamondbacks Learning From Experience on Injury Rehab Timelines

In the case of two of these players, Gurriel and Kelly, the initial return from injury did not go well. Gurriel took at-bats in extended spring at the Salt River Fields complex before going on a rehab assignment. He played in just two games with Double-A Amarillo, collecting nine plate appearances before being activated on April 18.

While medically miraculous that Gurriel returned from such a serious injury in just eight months, he was clearly rusty when he returned. He went 1-for-20 with one RBI his first five games back, batting mostly in the middle of the order.

Gurriel subsequently started to get some hits, but his power had not returned. Over his next 20 games he hit .278, but with only one homer, a .375 slugging percentage and .708 OPS. He then injured his hamstring and went back on the IL May 23.

Kelly, meanwhile, took a similar route. He pitched to live batters at Salt River, but made just one minor league rehab start for Triple-A Reno, a five-inning stint. He struggled with walks and command over his first four starts, issuing 15 free passes in 19 innings while giving up 21 runs for an eye-watering 9.95 ERA. He's been much better since then, but the first four outings raised questions about rushing him back.

Smith, Lawlar, and Puk are all nearing return in June, with Burnes targeting around the All-Star break and Martinez sometime in August.

During the recent homestand last Thursday, I had a chance to ask Lovullo if the experiences with Gurriel and Kelly informed them at all with regards to how many rehab games the players require to be truly ready to return to MLB action. It's a question that's been on Lovullo's mind too.

"Fair ask," the manager replied. "It's a question I asked this afternoon when I got here. I don't know if you can simulate this game speed here. The ball is just as firm in Triple-A. The runners are just as fast in Triple-A. The game speed is not necessarily the best way to describe it.

"It's the consistency in which players have to perform at a high level and the consistency in which the stuff is coming at you. That, to me, is the best description of a big league versus a rehab or a minor league situation or minor league season," Lovullo said.

Lovullo also said he spoke with Kelly to ask if there was anything different they could have done to help him prepare, but the answer came back no.

"You really can't. You got to get into the seat, get in the saddle here, and let it eat and you're going to figure it out here," Lovullo said.

Diamondbacks Making Adjustments

Despite those comments, it appears that the team might be backing off a bit in rushing players through the rehab games portion of their return timelines.

A.J. Puk pitched in an Arizona Complex League game on Saturday. According to one report, he was throwing 93-94. Earlier in the week Lovullo had indicated Puk had touched 95 in some live BP sessions. Prior to his injury, Puk was averaging 96.4 MPH on his four-seam fastball and often topped out a couple MPH above that.

According to a report from Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic on X, Puk is now expected to pitch in seven or eight minor league games before being activated. That likely means closer to a mid-June return, as opposed to the early-June timeline that had been previous floated.

With Lawlar, it appears he may be on a slightly faster track than Puk. Last week he started doing some cage batting practice and "flips" to build up hand strength. Lovullo would not commit to how many games or at-bats he'd like to see before Lawlar returns, however.

"I've seen some things thrown around via email, but I don't have that information as far as how many at-bats or how many games. It'll be a touch-and-go thing with him and we got to get him back up to game speed. That's going to take a little bit of time. We don't want to force anything. We want to make sure, first of all, he's healthy," Lovullo said.

Lovullo added that once you see Lawlar start to play back to back rehab games, that means he's getting pretty close to returning. Speaking to reporters on Monday, he indicated that Lawlar would return before Puk.

Smith apparently is the closest to returning of all three of these players. Seeing how many rehab at bats he gets could be a good indicator of how many they'll give to Lawlar.

Burnes, meanwhile, is still targeting a return "around the All-Star break," although he'll likely need at least six or seven minor league games to build up strength.