Diamondbacks' Newest Playoff Odds Give a Drastically Different Look

The D-backs currently sit atop a gaggle of eight teams all within 3.0 games or less of each other in the Wild Card chase. Owing to a weakened American League, the NL holds a whopping 149-115 lead in Interleague play.

This has resulted in 11 NL teams being over .500, compared to only four teams over .500 in the AL.

This will be a topsy-turvy race throughout the summer and into fall. One should expect the D-backs' fortunes to be determined the final weekend of the weekend of the season, just like they have each of the last three seasons.

Diamondbacks Playoff Odds Through May 28

The various projection models that peg playoff odds see the D-backs as a strong contender, (53.3%) but far from a lock to make the Postseason. The table above represents the composite average of playoff odds as generated by Baseball-Reference.com, Baseball Prospectus, and FanGraphs.

Baseball Reference's model is based on runs scored and allowed plus strength of schedule over a team's last 100 games. That includes games from previous season until the current season hits 100 games played. They run 25,000 simulations off those team ratings.

Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs both use their player projection models and run thousands of simulations off those to determine a teams forecasted runs scored and allowed. That then determines their record over the remaining games.

The Trade Deadline and Playoff Odds

We are currently just over 60 days out from the August 3 trade deadline. Right now there are only two teams in the NL (Colorado and San Francisco) that can be placed in the "sellers" category without adding a question mark.

As we get closer to the Fourth of July tables like this will have a great deal more meaning. The Diamondbacks will be seriously assessing not only their current place in the standings, but also their chances to continue to contend. Information similar to the table above will at least inform somewhat General Manager Mike Hazen's buy-sell decisions.

The Mets and Marlins will likely end up as sellers too, but it's still too early to say that for sure. The Nationals record is much better than their projections going forward, but they are a young, dynamic team with a strong offense.

Most likely just one of the three NL Central teams behind the Brewers and Cubs, namely the Cardinals, Pirates and Reds end up staying in the race past the trade deadline.

As for the Diamondbacks, they will be getting back injured players one by one over the following days and weeks. How successful they are in preparing those players to be able to hit the ground running without disrupting their current flow will determine if they can maintain their current pace.