Did the Phillies miss their championship window?

After 10 years of missing the postseason entirely, the Philadelphia Phillies finally broke through in 2022, making it all the way to the World Series no less. From there, the Phillies have been rolling downhill. Philadelphia lost in the NLCS in 2023, then proceeded to lose in the NLDS for the next two years, including this one. And with the offseason ahead, the picture is far from rosy.

As president of baseball operations, Dave Dombrowski noted, Bryce Harper isn’t the MVP he once was. Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Ranger Suarez and Walker Buehler, among others, are heading into free agency. With Schwarber being Dombrowski’s clear offseason priority, the Phillies will look to dump salary to offset his cost. Dombrowski has reportedly put Nick Castellanos on the trading block, which will free some of the $20 million he is owed next year, though not much, as his offense and defense have both been subpar. 

But with the deep pockets of other large-market teams in play for Schwarber, there is no guarantee he is coming back. These many uncertainties raise the question of whether the Phillies missed their shot at a World Series championship.

Can the Phillies return to the World Series sometime soon? 

Dombrowski’s offseason revolves largely around Schwarber. But even with Schwarber, the Phillies failed to make it to the NLCS in two consecutive attempts. And should they lose Realmuto and Suarez, re-signing Schwarber won’t even get them back to breakeven. There are two ways this dilemma could shake out.

First, we’ll assume the Phillies land Schwarber once more. What happens next? Dombrowski has indicated a willingness to spend, but most likely not enough to improve upon the 2025 team in a major way. It seems the bulk of the Phillies’ interests beyond Schwarber lie with re-signing Realmuto and Suarez. Like Schwarber, Suarez will also be due for a hefty pay raise, but it’s probably worth it to keep one of the game’s best arms when there is so much rotational uncertainty, given Aaron Nola’s struggles and Zack Wheeler’s recovery from surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome.

In the second scenario, the Phillies don’t land Schwarber. There are other options like Kyle Tucker, Pete Alonso and Cody Bellinger to choose from, but again, there will always be competition. And should the Phillies land an outfielder with the DH spot still open, they could also try for Marcell Ozuna.

Still, with their budget presenting a significant hurdle, there is no guarantee they can pull off the overhaul they need to return to the World Series, Schwarber or no Schwarber. If the Phillies are going to make it back, they may need to rely heavily on their youngsters.

The contributions of top prospects Andrew Painter, Aidan Miller and Justin Crawford will need to do more than just compensate for any important offseason departures. The same is also true of Otto Kemp, who made his debut this year. 

This new, young core brings a lot to be excited about. Nonetheless, it probably won't be enough to offset what will likely be hard times ahead for the Phillies, at least, not immediately.