Dinger Tuesday: Everything points to a Nick Castellanos homer

Shout-out Cole and Senga for getting our week started right with a clean +198 parlay cash in the hits allowed market! We'll have to dive into a few more of those plays down in Quick Picks, because up here is all about home runs today.

Ding-dong the pitch is dead: Fade these pitchers with some HR bets

Nick Castellanos (+420 FD)

This is for the 4 p.m. Philadelphia-Washington game, and beyond Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber also look just beautiful for a homer today. Spoiler alert: this writer parlayed all three at +5522, just saying.

Anyway, the reason is straightforward: Nationals starter Trevor Williams loves letting Phillies hit HRs against him. He's just a kind soul like that. Castellanos has knocked three HRs in 14 PA vs. Williams. Realmuto has three HRs in 12 PA, and Schwarber has blasted four homers in 43 PA. 

Castellanos is our preferred solo pick because he's been cruising. Three homers in his last six games, and he hits righties better for power. Here's to Williams keeping up his generous work with Philadelphia's bats.

J.D. Davis (+500 DK best price, +460 FD for promotion)

The Angels' Lucas Giolito has allowed the third-most home runs of any pitcher this season and is tied for most allowed among today's starters. That's a guy we need to bet against, and with a nice slight uptick in expected homers in Los Angeles (11% boost), we're comfortable going into this game and finding us a Giants slugger to feel good about.

As you saw, the man we're rolling with is J.D. Davis. We'd love to share some advanced statistics that may or may not have you gloss over a sentence or two, but unfortunately, this one is simple as can be.

Davis knocked a homer yesterday, the second-straight time he's visited the Angels and hit himself a dinger. Who are we to judge why Davis loves playing here so much? 10 of Davis' 15 HRs have come against RHP, and we're liking him to keep it rolling tonight against a pitcher that can be taken yard.

In the news ...

Matthew Stafford reportedly feeling better than he has in years —Consider us surprised, but Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford said it's been at least three years since he's felt this good in an offseason. We thought there was a chance Stafford might be heading to retirement, but it seems he's healthy and ready for 2023. The Rams obviously have Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald, but there's still quite a drop-off in depth after that. Los Angeles' win total is set at just 6.5. Do you trust Stafford's word enough to take a chance on a better-than-expected Rams season? 

Rookie WR Zay Flowers gaining attention during Baltimore camp — Let the record show we've been high on the Zay Flowers train for months now! Praise is growing for Baltimore rookie WR Flowers, mentioned by some as one of the most impressive rookies across all training camps. Flowers has helped form quite the arsenal for Lamar Jackson, joining Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr. in the WR room and Mark Andrews at TE. Flowers is +600 to lead all rookies in receiving yards this season.

Buzz growing on Atlanta Falcons 2023 offensive outlook — A lot depends on what Desmond Ridder can do at quarterback for Atlanta, but it's hard to not get excited about their offense when you look around the roster. Peter King of NBC Sports said exactly that, citing the "positionless football" that might make the Falcons extremely difficult to defend. Over the past three seasons, Atlanta has spent first-round picks on TE Kyle Pitts, WR Drake London and RB Bijan Robinson. That's quite the core, and it's reason for optimism in our opinion. The Falcons' win total is set at 8.5, and their team total for Week 1 opened at 22.5 points against Carolina.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll