Apr 19, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Fans celebrate the Houston Astros win after defeating the San Diego Padres at Daikin Park. Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

Disappointing 2026 Projection for Astros Top Two Prospects

Originally posted on Houston Astros on SI
By Jeremy Trottier | Last updated Dec 16, 2025 7:00 PM ET

The Houston Astros are a team that, for quite a few years now, has been sustained by veteran talent, primarily players they have developed over the years through exceptional drafts. Now, they have a farm system that is still a work in progress, no doubt, as they rank relatively low compared to most other teams.

Their top two prospects were promoted to the Major League level last season, getting some playing time as they continue to improve over time. Neither got an exceptional amount of time on the field, but with so many injuries being sustained by the team, they almost had to be out there. These two players are Brice Matthews and Jacob Melton, who both could factor into the 2026 season.

BRICE MATTHEWS.

423 FEET.

108.8 MPH pic.twitter.com/cAt2x9SuXR
— Sugar Land Space Cowboys (@SLSpaceCowboys) August 13, 2025

With FanGraphs putting out their 2026 steamer projections for every MLB roster, both Matthews and Melton were listed. However, neither of them was given a ton of playing time according to their metrics, with neither player having much to speak of in terms of statistics either. With the roster constantly shifting and now getting healthy, it may be tough for both of them to get playing time for now.

How Does FanGraphs Project Matthews and Melton to Perform in 2026?

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According to the metrics provided by FanGraphs, Matthews and Melton likely will not be on the field much in 2026. Regarding Melton, he is projected to play 27 games, slashing .227/.290/.380 with 12 runs, 12 RBI, five stolen bases, 0.2 fWAR, a 7.6% walk rate and a 26.5% strikeout rate.

As for Matthews, he is projected to play even fewer games, sitting at 11, slashing .216/.297/.370 with five runs, five RBI, two stolen bases, 0.1 fWAR, a 9.3% walk rate, and 32.2% strikeout rate. Neither player is given much of a wRC+ number either, with an 87 and 88, respectively.

This would be a reduced workload for both players from their 2025 debut season, but it also indicates a much healthier roster, which is a positive.

With Yordan Álvarez receiving an extremely high projection across both stats and efficiency, it is clear that they are high on the returning players compared to their previous seasons, which should indicate some positive momentum.

Unfortunately, that factors the two top Houston prospects out quite a bit, which will be tough for their long-term development, as getting more reps at the MLB level is going to be crucial. It will be intriguing to see if this ends up being the case or if they can carve out larger roles in 2026.