Dodgers vs. Padres prediction, picks, odds for NLDS Game 4 on Wednesday, Oct. 9

Dodgers vs Padres Game 4 Probable Starting Pitchers

Tony Sartori’s Dodgers vs. Padres Preview

Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Dodgers Could Whiff at the Plate

Los Angeles has yet to announce a starting pitcher prior to Wednesday’s Game 4, which is why I am instead looking at the prop market. Specifically, I am looking to back Cease in the strikeout department.

This is not necessarily a fade of the Dodgers lineup, which is obviously one of the best in baseball. However, this group has struggled against Cease, at least in the strikeout department.

Through 112 combined career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Los Angeles lineup possesses a fade-worthy 31.3% strikeout rate and 35.5% whiff rate. Teoscar Hernandez and Mookie Betts did the most damage to San Diego in Game 3, but those two are a combined 3-23 against Cease with three singles and 10 strikeouts.

San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Expect Cease to Bounce Back

Cease put together a strong campaign in 2024. Through 33 starts, he posted a 14-11 record with a 3.47 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

His underlying metrics are even stronger as Cease boasts a 3.34 xERA and .213 xBA. As mentioned above, we are going to back the right-hander in the prop market as he also ranks in the 92nd percentile in whiff rate and 89th percentile in strikeout rate.

Cease had about as bad of a start as you will get out of him in Game 1 of this series, surrendering five runs on six hits in under four innings of work. Despite the uncharacteristically poor performance, he still racked up five punchouts, which would be enough to once again get him over tonight’s total.

Cease has now accumulated five or more strikeouts in four of his five career starts against Los Angeles.

Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis

Even when Cease was pulled about as early as possible after having a bad start, the man still went over this strikeout number in Game 1. Meanwhile, his ceiling is far higher as the right-hander has found himself in double-digits for strikeouts numerous times both this season and previously against the Dodgers.

I project a much stronger outing from Cease at home than what we saw in Game 1, and his strikeout numbers should also coincide with that projection. While I am just playing this prop straight, a ladder play on his alternate strikeout lines projects well.

Finally, we are catching a particularly good price on Cease’s strikeout prop at +105 via BetMGM, a line that is eight-to-17 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.

Pick: Dylan Cease Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105 at BetMGM | Play to +100)

Moneyline

While I like San Diego to close out the series, I don’t have any interest in backing that line until we have a confirmed starting pitcher for Los Angeles.

Pick: Pass

Run Line (Spread)

Same philosophy as above.

Pick: Pass

Over/Under

I lean toward the Under, but once again, there is too much uncertainty without a confirmed starter for the Dodgers.

Pick: Pass

Dodgers vs Padres Betting Trends

Dodgers Betting Trends

• Dodgers are 39-41 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Dodgers’ last 5 games

Padres Betting Trends

• The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Padres’ last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 44 of Padres’ 80 last games at home

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