Even if the Braves clinch postseason berth, October will just be more of the same

The Braves are now 14 games back in the NL East. They’re in an unfamiliar spot, fourth place in the division and only 2.5 games ahead of the pitiful Marlins.

Hopefully, this is the bottom, and it’s all up from here for the Braves. There are still 98 games left in the 2025 campaign, which is theoretically enough time for Atlanta to still turn things around. As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic notes, the Mets (27-35) and Astros (28-35) were nearly identical from a year ago through the same date, and both finished with nearly 90 wins and a postseason berth.

“The tendency, in this age of overreaction, is to project the Braves as trade-deadline sellers and start listing potential landing spots for designated hitter Marcell Ozuna. But through the same date a year ago, the New York Mets were 27-35 and the Houston Astros 28-35, records nearly identical to the Braves’ current mark. Both teams finished with nearly 90 wins and reached the postseason.

But more than 100 games remain. As poorly as the Braves are playing, the recoveries of the 2024 Mets and Astros are testaments to the dangers of passing judgment on a team too soon. So, for that matter, is the example of the 2021 World Series champion Braves, who at this stage of the season were 29-32.”

However, in that same breath, the Braves have shown who they are to their core. Even if they clinch a postseason berth, nobody should have confidence that this club can make any noise in October. They crumble when the lights are brightest. We saw it happen in each of the playoffs since winning the World Series, and we are seeing it unfold in front of us right now.

Rosenthal noted that Atlanta’s plus-3 run differential suggests they should have a better record than they do, and while that might be true, the Braves have played in a major-league-high 28 one-run games and are 9-19 in those contests. That’s not a trend I see this team bucking.

Winning close games is a characteristic of champions, and this Braves team has shown no signs of being a clutch club. As a team, Atlanta’s offense has an OPS+ that is 23% below league average with runners in scoring position and two outs. In all high-leverage situations, their OPS+ is 10% below the league average. On the flip side of things, Atlanta’s pitching staff is allowing opposing hitters to average an OPS+ 6% above league average in high-leverage situations.

There is nothing about this Atlanta Braves team that screams they can go on a run. Want more evidence? The only path forward is through the Wild Card, which means Brian Snitker’s team will have to go on the road, somewhere they’ve struggled mightily, boasting an abysmal 10-23 road record.

Even if the Braves clinch their 8th consecutive playoff appearance, a deep run in the postseason is probably nothing more than a pipe dream.

*High Leverage stats are from (6/6/2025)*