Examining Jacob deGrom’s Excellence Since Shaky Rangers Season Debut

Here are deGrom’s baseline numbers after four starts:

He is 1-0 with a 2.29 ERA in four starts, with 25 strikeouts and six walks. He is averaging 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings (ahead of last year’s page) and averaged 2.7 walks per nine innings (behind last year’s pace). He’s allowed 15 hits in 19.2 innings.

deGrom has already collected a bWAR of 0.7. His career best is 9.4, which he posted with the New York Mets in 2018 in one of his two Cy Young seasons. He went 10-9 with a Major League-leading 1.70 ERA.  

Left-handed batters are hitting just .143 against him. But, two of the three home runs he’s allowed have been to left-handed batters. Right-handed batters are hitting a robust .348 against him through four games. Notably, he’s only faced 23 right-handed batters while he’s faced 49 left-handed batters.

Statcast Numbers

As one might expect, much of his MLB percentile rankings are in the red, including his pitching run value (+4, 88%), breaking run value (+3, 94%) and offspeed run value (+1, 85%). His fastball run value is at zero, which is 43%. deGrom has worked the past two years to mix his fastball (45.9% use) with other pitches, with his slider (32%) being the one he’s leaned on the most outside of his four-seam fastball.

His strikeout percentage of 32.1% is in the 88th percentile in the Majors, which is his best pitching number on Statcast. Two numbers to keep in mind. His barrel percentage is 10.6%, which is in the 29th percentile, and his ground ball rate is 25.5%, which is in the seventh percentile. He’s giving up good contact, reflected in his 36.2% hard-hit rate, which is in the 67th percentile.

Nimmo’s fielding values are surprisingly high in arm value (1, 80%) and arm strength (87.4, 72%), which may mean the move to right field will help him later in his career.

His whiff rate (29.4%) and his walk rate (7.7%) are both in the red, though the walk rate is only in the 67th percentile.

The Bottom Line So Far

Outside of his first start against Baltimore, he’s been the ace. He gave up three runs to the Orioles in his season debut. He’s allowed two runs in the next three starts. Even better, opponents have batted under .200 against him since then. The three home runs allowed are still concerning, given he allowed 26 last year.

There are certain pockets of lineups he’s dominated. For instance, he hasn’t allowed a hit to a batter hitting fifth, sixth or seventh yet this season. He also hasn’t allowed a hit on five different counts — 0-2, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 3-1. deGrom is getting ahead of hitters and putting them away, a good sign.

If this is the deGrom the Rangers get all season, he should put together something comparable to last year’s 12-8 and 2.97 ERA.