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Examining the best seats at the Rogers Centre for catching home run souvenirs

Originally posted on Bluejaysnation
By Trevor Fitzpatrick | Last updated Mar 25, 2025 10:54 AM ET

With the regular season only days away, fans may be wondering which seats in the Rogers Centre give them the best chance of taking home a home run souvenir ball.

Casino.org dove into the data and commissioned a spray chart data for every ballpark across MLB from 2021-2024 (over 22,000 home runs!). Using that data, they honed in on specific rows where you should sit if you want the best odds of snagging a home run ball for yourself.

First, though, note that Rogers Centre’s outfield dimensions changed with the 2023 renovations. While this may have a slight impact on the results, expect any skews in the data to be fairly small given the changes over the years. The distance to the walls in right and left field were shortened but the walls themselves were made taller, while the centre field wall remained the same distance, but was reduced in height, making way for some highlight reel catches over time.

Rogers Centre ranks in the bottom half of the league’s fields (22nd) in terms of total home runs hit over the four years, including both the Blue Jays and their opponents. Thankfully, the Toronto Blue Jays themselves rank a bit better at 15th as a team in total home runs and hit nearly a third (29.49%) of their round-trippers to left field, regardless of stadium. Keeping that in mind, the research based on the data from the past four seasons determined that the seats in sections 142-146 are the best for snagging a ball.

Here are the new Rogers Centre dimensions LCF now 368 (was 375) with a wall that's higher. RCF now 359 (was 375) with a wall that's much higher. pic.twitter.com/dgM7DbkZE2

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) January 27, 2023

On the flip side, right field is the worst place in the outfield to hunt for a souvenir.

The chances of catching one there drop to 16.99% and go even lower in right-centre field to 13.88%. That may be due to the Blue Jays boasting a steady dose of right-handed hitting sluggers in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, and Bo Bichette through the sample size, although Bichette likes to drive the ball the opposite way, the data shows that Rogers Centre homers favour the left side. The Jays also play host to a bunch of power bats from the right side throughout the season, such as Aaron Judge, Anthony Santander (now a Blue Jay), and Tyler O’Neill.

This may change this season given the addition of switch-hitting outfielder Anthony Santander and his home base now being in Toronto, who boasts three consecutive 30+ home run campaigns with the Baltimore Orioles, and the addition of some other left-handed hitting bats to the lineup over the past couple of seasons, such as Daulton Varsho and Will Wagner.

On the road

For any West Coast Blue Jays fans who are planning on visiting T-Mobile Park when the Jays face the Seattle Mariners this season, know that the spray chart is more varied than Rogers Centre.

T-Mobile ranks 16th for homers hit there, with 24.42% going to left field and 21.57% going to right. With your odds more even there, the best seating rows are sections 181-185 and 104-109.

From all of us at Blue Jays Nation, happy souvenir hunting if you choose to do so this season!

This article first appeared on Bluejaysnation and was syndicated with permission.

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