FanGraphs has shocking projection for the Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves are fresh off a season in which they missed the playoffs for the first time since 2018, winning just 72 games and finishing fourth in the NL East, despite being given the second-best odds of any team to win the World Series entering the year. It was inarguably one of the most disappointing seasons in franchise history, highlighted by a plethora of injuries and underperformances from several of the club’s biggest stars.

From 2018–2023, the Braves were the class of the division. They won six straight division titles and a World Series, with their win total continuing to rise until it peaked at 104 wins in 2023. However, in the two seasons since, it’s been a massive decline. They won just 89 games in 2024, barely sneaking into the playoffs, and then, of course, collapsed even further in 2025. Despite that, FanGraphs still views the Braves as the second-best team in baseball entering 2026.

Atlanta has the second-highest odds of any team to make the postseason at 87.5%, along with the second-highest odds of winning the World Series at 10.4%, behind only the Dodgers in both categories.

On the one hand, the projections are somewhat understandable. No team in Major League Baseball has been hamstrung by injuries more than the Braves over the last two seasons. In 2025, every member of their Opening Day rotation hit the IL for at least six weeks, with four of them suffering season-ending injuries. No team, not even the Dodgers, would be able to overcome something like that.

However, injuries are a concern again entering 2026. Not only is their entire rotation attempting to return from significant recovery timelines, but the Braves are already expected to be without Sean Murphy and Ha-Seong Kim for at least the first six weeks of the season. To ignore the elephant in the room after what’s transpired over the last two years would be disingenuous. This is a club littered with concerns already, and we haven’t even gotten to the underperformances.

Michael Harris II, Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, and Ozzie Albies are all coming off career-worst campaigns. The Braves are also set to lose a major offensive contributor in Marcell Ozuna, who hit 79 homers and drove in over 200 runs between the 2023 and 2024 seasons.

Of course, there’s a world where the Braves stay much healthier this season and their stars return to prior form. In that scenario, Atlanta absolutely has the capability to flirt with 100 wins again and go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers in the postseason like the good old days. But to say they have an 87.5% chance of making the playoffs entering the season — FanGraphs might need to take a deeper look at its projection formula after spitting out those results.

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