FanGraphs projects Twins will make playoffs, win AL Central

The Minnesota Twins are the favorites to win the American League Central and have a 57% chance to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, which released playoff odds and projected standings for the 2025 season on Wednesday.

FanGraphs projects the Twins to win 84.4 games and edge out the Detroit Tigers for the AL Central title. It gives the Twins a 37.9% chance of winning the division, a 22% chance of clinching a bye and a 3.9% chance to win the World Series.

The projections from FanGraphs are similar to those recently released by PECOTA, which gave Minnesota a 49.7% chance to win the division and a 62.9% chance of making the playoffs. PECOTA forecasts the Twins to win 86.2 games.

FanGraphs and PECOTA have a different pecking order behind the Twins in the Central. While PECOTA has the Kansas City Royals (81.1 wins), Cleveland Guardians (80.4), Tigers (79.4) and Chicago White Sox (61.5) coming in behind the Twins, respectively, FanGraphs has the Tigers (82.8) on their tail ahead of the Royals (82.1), Guardians (77.8) and White Sox (62.2).

PECOTA also gave the Twins a better chance of winning the World Series (4.7%), ninth best in Major League Baseball.

But despite having the better percent change in PECOTA's model, the Twins have the seventh-best chance to win the World Series from FanGraphs' projections. Minnesota is behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (24.3%), Atlanta Braves (14.9%), New York Yankees (7.7%), Philadelphia Phillies (5.3%), Texas Rangers (4.4%) and Seattle Mariners (4.3%).

The Twins begin spring training in just over two weeks with a Feb. 22 game against the Atlanta Braves at Hammond Stadium in Fort Myers, Fla. They open the regular season on March 27 against the St. Louis Cardinals in St. Louis.