
Last weekend in the Kentucky Derby, we watched Golden Tempo, a 23:1 longshot catapult from last place to Derby champion in what can only be described as a thrilling two minutes. As he overtook every horse in front of them they each fell back one place immediately and often, out of our collective thought.
Week 6 in major league bullpens was a bit like the Kentucky Derby.
I won’t tell you that any closer is threatening Mason Miller’s almost unshakable hold on our top spot, but we did see a lot of jockeying and closers surging up our confidence leaderboards. I’m looking at you Bryan Baker and I see you, Gregory Soto.
This week I have graduated a few arms from “Seesaw” to mere “Shaky” and, again, a name had dropped out of the secure cohort.
It’s a bumpy ride, so here we go…..
In the weekly Closer Confidential column, we group closers, and committees, into three cohorts:
| Cohort | Definition |
|---|---|
Secure |
90 and Above — Low-to-no risk; good results, strong underlying statistics |
Shaky |
80-89 — Some doubt exists, often with inconsistent supporting skills/stats |
Seesaw |
79 and Below — Committees and closers in trouble. 9th inning is (or should be) in doubt. |
And then there were three. I dropped Andres Muñoz.
Mason Miller used 29 pitches Saturday, walked two, and still struck out four Cardinals in a 1.1-inning save. He is now at 12 saves with a 0.643 WHIP on the season. I don’t have a lot to say about Mason Miller that the numbers don’t already say better. He is the only arm in baseball I would accept as collateral on a loan right now.
| Closer | Team | Next Option(s) | Confidence Grade | Last Week's Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason Miller |
SD |
Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada |
97 |
96 |
Cade Smith |
CLE |
Erik Sabrowski |
93 |
93 |
David Bednar |
NYY |
Camilo Doval |
92 |
93 |
Changes in Confidence Grade or Personnel in bold.
Raisel Iglesias returned from the IL Tuesday and immediately took the ninth inning back from Robert Suárez. Suárez has been tremendous — ERA and WHIP both under 1.00, four-for-four in save opportunities — and remains an excellent hold, but the order is now clear. I like Suárez better than Iglesias, but Walt Weiss won’t listen to me.
Andres Muñoz’s 6.00 ERA and two blown saves are hard to keep ignoring, even with a 2.34 xFIP that says the underlying stuff is fine, so I’ve moved him to shaky.
Aroldis Chapman gets a bump this week, and he has earned it. He is 7-for-7 in save opportunities with a 0.77 ERA, and on Thursday he struck out Jonny DeLuca looking to close out a 2-0 win over Tampa Bay. I’ll be honest with you — I have always had a seed of doubt about a 38-year-old closer, and I am constitutionally incapable of fully trusting someone at that age in a high-leverage role. But one or two more clean weeks and I will be forced to graduate him to the Secure cohort whether I like it or not.
Riley O’Brien is graduating out of Seesaw but I’m not going to get carried away about it. He blew a save Sunday, which is a timely reminder that small samples cut both ways. Still, an 11-save season, a 20:1 K:BB ratio, and a 2.00 ERA say this is a real arm in a real role. He’s not a “wait and see” arm anymore. I’m moving him up, but modestly.
Devin Williams went two-for-two on saves this week and has now made five straight scoreless appearances. We’re watching him closely.
Seranthony Domínguez gets a bump into this group this week. He has two blown saves, but he’s a veteran arm with 48 career saves who is getting the ball in Chicago and figures to keep getting it. I’m not 100 percent sold on him and would still like to see Grant Taylor in a ninth inning.
Bryan Baker is the most interesting arm nobody seems to be talking about right now. His 4.32 ERA is a product of two bad sequences — leadoff walks that snowballed — not bad stuff. He leads Tampa Bay with nine saves and I’m bumping him up. Go get him if he’s on your wire.
Gregory Soto has done enough to earn his way out of Seesaw as well. Two more saves this week, a 1.42 ERA, and the Pittsburgh leverage index lead. Dennis Santana is no longer a factor. Soto is the guy.
Paul Sewald joins this group this week as well. Eight saves, 17 strikeouts against just 4 walks through 13.2 innings, and a clean two-strikeout ninth Saturday against the Mets’ heart of the order. I’m not sure he gets enough credit for what he’s been doing in Arizona.
The Cincinnati situation is now a Grade 2 hamstring disaster. Emilio Pagán is on the IL for a month or more, and Terry Francona has indicated he will manage by matchup rather than assign a closer. If I trust any manager with gametime decisions, it would be Francona, so it will be interesting to monitor.
| Closer | Team | Next Option(s) | Confidence Grade | Last Week's Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Raisel Iglesias |
ATL |
Robert Suárez, Tyler Kinley |
89 |
89 |
Andres Munoz |
SEA |
Jose Ferrer |
89 |
90 |
Aroldis Chapman |
BOS |
Garrett Whitlock |
89 |
88 |
Devin Williams |
NYM |
Luke Weaver, A.J. Minter (inj.) |
86 |
86 |
Brad Keller* |
PHI |
Jose Alvarado*, Jhoan Duran (inj.) |
85 |
85 |
Riley O’Brien |
STL |
JoJo Romero, George Soriano |
85 |
81 |
Tanner Scott* |
LAD |
Alex Vesia*, Edwin Díaz (inj.) |
85 |
85 |
Daniel Palencia |
CHC |
Hoby Milner, Phil Maton |
82 |
82 |
Paul Sewald |
ARI |
Taylor Clarke, Juan Morillo |
82 |
79 |
Gregory Soto |
PIT |
Dennis Santana |
81 |
79 |
Bryan Baker |
TB |
Griffin Jax, Jose Ferrer |
81 |
76 |
Seranthony Dominguez |
CHW |
Grant Taylor, Jordan Leasure |
80 |
79 |
Changes in Confidence Grade or Personnel in bold.
Kenley Jansen joins the Seesaws. Three blown saves, a 6.14 ERA, back-to-back walk-off home runs allowed, and now a right groin and lower abdomen issue keeping him day-to-day. Kyle Finnegan has a 0.61 ERA in 14 appearances and is the arm to know in Detroit. Jansen gets every benefit of the doubt given his Hall of Fame track record, but he is not closing games well right now and he is not fully healthy.
Rico Garcia gets a bump to 79 this week and an opportunity I want to watch. He has the Baltimore closer job by default with Ryan Helsley on the IL, and the MRI showing no structural damage is at least a reason for cautious optimism that Helsley isn’t done for the year. If Garcia has a clean Week 7, I will move him up.
Carlos Estévez exited his rehab assignment early with shoulder discomfort and is now shut down from throwing for three weeks with a rotator cuff strain. Drop him. Lucas Erceg has the Kansas City job with no realistic competition.
Josh Hader began his rehab assignment this week and is targeting a late-May return. Hold him if you can.
In San Francisco, with Walker gone, Caleb Kilian is now the closest thing the Giants have to a designated closer. He has a 1.13 ERA, which I like. He has a 12.5 percent walk rate, which I don’t. Erik Miller is expected back from a lower back strain in about a week and will further complicate things. This committee is messy, but Kilian is your best add right now.
| Closer | Team | Next Option(s) | Confidence Grade | Last Week's Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Abner Uribe* |
MIL |
Trevor Megill |
79 |
79 |
Victor Vodnik* |
COL |
Antonio Senzatela*, Zach Agnos |
79 |
79 |
Graham Ashcraft* |
CIN |
Pierce Johnson*, Tony Santillan, Emilio Pagan (inj.) |
79 |
83 |
Rico Garcia* |
BAL |
Andrew Kittredge, Keegan Akin |
79 |
77 |
Louis Varland |
TOR |
Jeff Hoffman |
79 |
76 |
Kenley Jansen |
DET |
Kyle Finnegan, Will Vest (inj.) |
79 |
83 |
Tyler Phillips* |
MIA |
Calvin Faucher*, Anthony Bender* |
76 |
76 |
Lucas Erceg |
KC |
Daniel Lynch, Carlos Estévez (inj.) |
76 |
79 |
Ryan Zeferjahn |
LAA |
Kirby Yates*, Ben Joyce (inj.) |
75 |
75 |
Gus Varland |
WAS |
Richard Lovelady, Clayton Beeter (inj.) |
74 |
74 |
Caleb Kilian* |
SF |
Keaton Winn*, Erik Miller (inj.) |
73 |
73 |
Bryan King* |
HOU |
Enyel De Los Santos*, Josh Hader (inj.) |
72 |
72 |
Joel Kuhnel* |
ATH |
Hogan Harris*, Scott Barlow |
71 |
71 |
Jakob Latz |
TEX |
Jakob Junis, Cole Winn |
68 |
79 |
Justin Topa* |
MIN |
Eric Orze*, Kody Funderburk |
68 |
68 |
Changes in Confidence Grade or Personnel in bold.
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