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First Things First! MLB Probable Starters + Underdog Winners

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By John Laghezza | Last updated Jul 2, 2025 8:35 AM ET

"Give me six hours to chop down a tree, I'll spend the first four sharpening the axe."

Part of the struggle betting baseball daily comes down to handling the massive amount of data attached to each slate, beginning with the day's probables. Word to the wise — before you start opening 1,000 different Chrome tabs chasing info, get all your ducks in a row first.

Make sure to bookmark our Athlon Sports Betting tab to help solidify that foundation bright and early every day.

Wednesday July 2nd, 2025

12:10pm EST — O/U 8.5

ATH Mitch Spence: +189; 34.6%

TB Ryan Pepiot: -227; 69.4%

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12:35pm EST — O/U 7.5

STL Sonny Gray: -141; 58.5%

PIT Mitch Keller: +120; 45.5%

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1:05pm EST — O/U 8.5

SD Nick Pivetta: -116; 53.7%

PHI Mick Abel: -101; 50.2%

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1:05pm EST — O/U 9.5

DET Tyler Holton: -159; 61.4%

WSH Trevor Williams: +134; 42.7%

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1:10pm EST — O/U 7.5

MIL Freddy Peralta: +114; 46.7%

NYM Clay Holmes: -133; 57.1%

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6:45pm EST — O/U 8.5 *GAME 2*

SD Dylan Cease: +125; 44.4%

PHI Cristopher Sanchez: -147; 59.5%

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6:40pm EST — O/U 8.5

MIN Simeon Woods Richardson: -119; 54.3%

MIA Janson Junk: +102; 49.5%

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6:45pm EST — O/U 7.5 *GAME 2*

DET Jack Flaherty: -112; 52.8%

WSH MacKenzie Gore: -105; 51.2%

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7:07pm EST — O/U 8.5

NYY Will Warren: -130; 56.5%

TOR Jose Berrios: +111; 47.4%

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7:10pm EST — O/U 9.5

CIN Nick Martinez: +112; 47.2%

BOS Brayan Bello: -132; 56.9%

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7:10pm EST — O/U 8.5 *GAME 2*

MIL Jacob Misiorowski: -132; 56.9%

NYM Blade Tidwell: +112; 47.2%

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7:15pm EST — O/U 9.5

LAA Yusei Kikuchi: +112; 47.2%

ATL Didier Fuentes: -132; 56.9%

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8:05pm EST — O/U 7.5

CLE Tanner Bibee: +135; 42.6%

CHC Shota Imanaga: -159; 61.4%

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8:05pm EST — O/U 8.5

BAL Tomoyuki Sugano: +129; 43.7%

TEX Nathan Eovaldi: -152; 60.3%

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8:40pm EST — O/U 11.5

HOU Hunter Brown: -256; 71.9%

COL Austin Gomber: +214; 31.8%

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9:40pm EST — O/U 8.5

SF Landen Roupp: +113; 46.9%

ARI Merrill Kelly: -133; 57.1%

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9:40pm EST — O/U 7.5

KC Noah Cameron: +151; 39.8%

SEA Logan Gilbert: -179; 64.2%

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10:10pm EST — O/U 9.5

CHW Sean Burke: +260; 27.8%

LAD Clayton Kershaw: -323; 76.4%

LAGHEZZA'S LEANS:

Tuesday's dogs go 3-2 (2xPPD) for yet another day in the black — Remember just a 50% hit rate at plus money equals profit!

My first read usually comes down to one thing: underdogs at plus odds with at least a 50/50 chance to win outright — Today's are MIL, MIA, WAS, and LAA. . Remember, baseball's inherently variant and backing dogs greatly lowers the necessary win/loss record to profit long-term. These dogs continue to perform so well since we started, way better than expected.

BET SMALL, BET SMART, BET RESPONSIBLY

Thanks so much for reading — If you're interested in upping your analytical game, come check out my best-selling MLB/NFL Betting & Fantasy Data Substack page.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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