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First Things First! MLB Probable Starters + Underdog Winners

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By John Laghezza | Last updated Jul 5, 2025 8:44 AM ET

"Give me six hours to chop down a tree, I'll spend the first four sharpening the axe."

Part of the struggle betting baseball daily comes down to handling the massive amount of data attached to each slate, beginning with the day's probables. Injuries, openers or shuffling can throw your work in a blender before it begins.

Make sure to bookmark our Athlon Sports Betting tab to help solidify that foundation bright and early every day.

Wednesday July 2nd, 2025

2:10pm EST — O/U 9.5

TB Taj Bradley: -128; 56.1% Implied Probability

MIN Travis Adams: 109; 47.8% Implied Probability

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2:20pm EST — O/U 10.5

STL Matthew Liberatore: 113; 46.9% Implied Probability

CHC Jordan Wicks: -133; 57.1% Implied Probability

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3:07pm EST — O/U 9.5

LAA Jack Kochanowicz: 150; 40.0% Implied Probability

TOR Max Scherzer: -179; 64.2% Implied Probability

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4:05pm EST — O/U 9.5

BOS Walker Buehler: -109; 52.2% Implied Probability

WSH Mitchell Parker: -109; 52.2% Implied Probability

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4:05pm EST — O/U 8.5

CIN Nick Lodolo: 148; 40.3% Implied Probability

PHI Ranger Suarez: -175; 63.6% Implied Probability

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4:10pm EST — O/U 8.5

NYY Carlos Rodon: -154; 60.6% Implied Probability

NYM Frankie Montas: 131; 43.3% Implied Probability

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4:10pm EST — O/U 8.5

KC Michael Wacha: 119; 45.7% Implied Probability

ARI Ryne Nelson: -139; 58.2% Implied Probability

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4:10pm EST — O/U 9.5

BAL Dean Kremer: 111; 47.4% Implied Probability

ATL Aaron Bummer: -132; 56.9% Implied Probability

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4:10pm EST — O/U 8.5

MIL Chad Patrick: -145; 59.2% Implied Probability

MIA Cal Quantrill: 124; 44.6% Implied Probability

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7:15pm EST — O/U 8.5

DET Casey Mize: -141; 58.5% Implied Probability

CLE Logan Allen: 119; 45.7% Implied Probability

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7:15pm EST — O/U 8.5

HOU Framber Valdez: 123; 44.8% Implied Probability

LAD Shohei Ohtani: -145; 59.2% Implied Probability

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9:10pm EST — O/U 11.5

CHW Jonathan Cannon: 100; 50.0% Implied Probability

COL German Marquez: -118; 54.1% Implied Probability

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9:40pm EST — O/U 8.5

TEX Jack Leiter: 115; 46.5% Implied Probability

SD Stephen Kolek: -135; 57.4% Implied Probability

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10:05pm EST — O/U 9.5

SF Logan Webb: -192; 65.8% Implied Probability

ATH Luis Severino: 161; 38.3% Implied Probability

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10:10pm EST — O/U 7.5

PIT Mike Burrows: 155; 39.2% Implied Probability

SEA Luis Castillo: -182; 64.5% Implied Probability

My first read usually comes down to one thing: underdogs at plus odds with at least a 50/50 chance to win outright — Today's are STL, BAL, HOU, TEX, and PIT.

Remember, baseball's inherently variant and backing dogs greatly lowers the necessary win/loss record to profit long-term. These dogs continue to perform so well since we started, way better than expected.

BET SMALL, BET SMART, BET RESPONSIBLY

Thanks so much for reading — If you're interested in upping your analytical game, come check out my best-selling MLB/NFL Betting & Fantasy Data Substack page.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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