Five Predictions for the Pittsburgh Pirates 2026 Season

The 2026 season is just around the corner, which means Pittsburgh Pirates baseball is almost back. The last two seasons have been about as disappointing as they can get. Things were looking up for the Pirates after they went from 62 wins to 76 wins between 2022 and 2023. They ended July 2024 above .500, and a potential Wild Card team. However, they fell off a cliff in August and September, and stalled out at 76 wins. Things only got worse in 2025, as their poor offense led to just a 71-91 record. However, things are different this time around. The Pirates had one of their most active offseasons in ages. They added relief pitching and a ton of lineup depth. With that, let’s make some Pirates predictions for the upcoming 2026 campaign.

Five Predictions for the Pittsburgh Pirates 2026 Season

Record: 86-76

Going from 71 wins to 86 wins is a massive jump to ask for. But let’s look at how good the Pirates were when they were able to score. Last year, the Pirates had a .687 win rate when they scored four or more runs. Unfortunately, they had the fewest games with 4+ runs, with just 67. They tied with the Colorado Rockies for the fewest in baseball. They were also the only MLB team in 2025 with fewer than 95 games in which they scored three or more runs.

However, they had the fifth-most games in which their pitching allowed three or fewer earned runs. They achieved that feat 92 times in 2025. They weren’t far off from the number one spot either. The New York Yankees had the most games with three or fewer earned runs allowed, with 94. Unfortunately, they had the second-most losses while allowing three or fewer ER, with 33. Only the Chicago White Sox had more, with 35.

The Pirates’ pitching staff is mostly the same as last year. The only names not returning that played a large part in the Pirates’ 2025 pitching staff are David Bednar, Bailey Falter, Caleb Ferguson, and Andrew Heaney. It all hinges on how good the Pirates’ offense is, and they certainly made serious attempts to improve the lineup.

Three of the four Pirates hitters who had -10 or less batting runs are not going to be on the 2026 team. That includes Jack Suwinski, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, and Ke’Bryan Hayes. Cam Devanney, Adam Frazier, and Alexander Canario had no more than -5 batting runs. Meanwhile, Ryan O’Hearn (+16), Marcell Ozuna (+13), and Brandon Lowe (+11) each had double-digit positive batting runs in 2025. Jhostynxon Garcia is a top outfield prospect who has the potential to be a plus offensive force. While Jake Mangum may not make much of an impact in the power department, he reaches base enough to make his speed a real threat.

On top of that, the number one prospect in baseball, Konnor Griffin, should play most of 2026 in the Major Leagues. All of that lineup protection should only help stalwarts like Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, and Spencer Horwitz. Even an average lineup will give the Pirates an above-average lineup.500 records. 86 wins is not a completely insane prediction once you factor in all the offense added and all the negative contributors removed from last year’s roster.

Team MVP and Cy Young: Paul Skenes

It’s hard to imagine Paul Skenes not being the Pirates’ best pitcher and most valuable player in 2026. Even though the Pirates have a lot of talented young hurlers and the best prospect in the sport right now, Skenes is on another level. Skenes followed up his historic rookie season with an even better Cy Young campaign. He became the first Cy Young winner for the Pirates since Doug Drabek in 1990.

It was a well-deserved Cy Young win after Skenes posted a 1.97 ERA (217 ERA+), 2.36 FIP, and 0.95 WHIP over 187.2 innings pitched. The right-hander nearly struck out 30% of opponents, clocking in with a 29.5% K%. He also rarely walked anyone, with a BB% of 5.7%. His 23.7% K-BB% was the third-best in MLB and the best in the National League. Only Tarik Skubal (27.8%) and Garrett Crochet (27.8%) surpassed Skenes in this regard.

Skenes had an impressive 30.1% whiff rate, which was in the 83rd percentile of pitchers in 2025. Batters rarely made quality contact when they were able to get the bat to the ball against him. He was in the 87th percentile for exit velocity at 87.6 MPH and the 86th percentile for barrel percentage at 5.8%. Unsurprisingly, Skenes had a strong 0.53 HR/9 ratio. That tied him with fellow Cy Young finalist Cristopher Sanchez of the Philadelphia Phillies for the lowest mark in baseball.

The only way Skenes isn’t the Pirates’ most valuable player in 2026 is if Konnor Griffin immediately becomes Mike Trout 2.0. That isn’t out of the question, but expecting that level of production from a player who won’t turn 20 until late April might be setting the bar a little too high. Skenes is the safe bet to be the Pirates’ 2026 MVP. He has been a superstar hurler since his MLB debut in 2024.

Pirates Rookie of the Year: Konnor Griffin

The Pirates have plenty of talented rookies, but nobody can compare to Konnor Griffin. He is the consensus number one prospect in the sport. The Pirates have never had a prospect rank as high as Griffin does right now. His prospect status doesn’t come without merit. He put on a show last year in the Pirates’ system.

Griffin turned in a .333/.415/.527 triple-slash, and belted 21 home runs in 563 plate appearances. The shortstop struck out just 21.7% of the time with an 8.9% walk rate. Griffin showed off his impressive speed, swiping an impressive 65 bags. He was the only prospect in the minor leagues to bat at least .300/.400/.500 in 500+ plate appearances. Overall, Griffin had a .437 wOBA and 165 wRC+. He led all minor leaguers who appeared in 100+ games in wRC+. The pinnacle of his performance is that he started the year in A-Ball and ended the season in Double-A, and his wRC+ improved at each level.

Griffin’s scouting report only makes his future outlook even brighter. Baseball America doesn’t project any of his five tools below a 60-grade. That means his worst tools, which are his hit and fielding, are still plus items in his skillset. A 60-hit and field is like a .280 hitter with +10 defensive runs saved. Griffin receives a 70-grade for his power and arm strength, and the ever-so-coveted 80-grade for his speed.

Griffin has the potential to have the best rookie season in the Pirates’ franchise history. He could have had a 30/30 season in his age-20 season. He has the speed and power to do so. The fact that he could also be a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop puts his ceiling in the stratosphere. The Pirates need him to be good if they want to find any success in 2026.

Honorable mention: Bubba Chandler

Breakout position player: Jared Triolo

Jared Triolo’s bat took a step forward in 2025. The utility man hit .227/.311/.356 with a .296 wOBA, and 86 wRC+. He walked at a healthy 10.4% rate and had a solid 20.2% strikeout percentage. Triolo didn’t hit for much power, with only seven home runs and a .130 ISO through 376 plate appearances. However, that is a massive improvement over his 72 wRC+, .099 ISO, and 26.5% K% from 2024.

Still, it was below average production overall, so what indicates Triolo could be in for a big breakout? The first is that Triolo started making better quality contact. His exit velocity and barrel rate went from 88.4 MPH and 5.3% to 89 MPH and 6.2%, respectively. That led to his xSLG% and xwOBA going from .347 and .296 in 2024 to .383 and .310 in 2025.

The talented infielder also improved his plate discipline. Triolo cut his chase rate down from 25.1% to 24.3% between 2024 and 2025. However, the biggest improvement Triolo made was in the amount of contact he made. His whiff and contact percentages were 27.4% (34th percentile) and 74.8% in 2024. In 2025, he saw those improve to a 24% whiff rate (52nd percentile) and a 78.3% contact rate.

Triolo made improvements to three of the most fundamental parts of hitting. He swung outside the zone less, made more contact, and made better overall contact. Those improvements led to a 117 wRC+ from the start of August through the end of the season. Triolo has a very strong chance of taking another leap forward in 2026.

Honorable mention: Henry Davis

Breakout Pitcher: Justin Lawrence

The Pirates acquired right-hander Justin Lawrence last Spring Training. Lawrence spent his first four seasons with the Colorado Rockies, where he struggled. He began his career with a 5.43 ERA, 4.32 FIP, and 1.61 WHIP over 194 innings pitched. Lawrence struck out only 21.3% of opponents while posting a poor 12.5% walk rate. Surprisingly, he limited home runs well with a 0.79 HR/9 ratio, despite spending half of his time in Coors Field.

2025 was mostly a lost season for Lawrence. He landed on the IL in late April and didn’t reappear in the Major Leagues until mid-September. However, when Lawrence took the mound, he was outright dominant. In 17.2 innings, Lawrence allowed a single earned run, struck out 23, and walked eight. He got opponents to chase outside the strike zone 28.6% of the time, and induced a whiff at a 29.5% rate.

Very few pitchers on the Pirates have as good a stuff as Lawrence. He had a negative one-degree arm angle and averaged out around 95 MPH with his sinker. He was the only pitcher to throw any pitches at 94+ MPH at a zero-degree or lower arm angle. 97 of Lawrence’s pitches met this criterion. Overall, he had a 107 FanGraphs Stuff+, which was the same as Paul Skenes and David Bednar in 2025.

Moving Lawrence out of Coors Field will also help. The low atmosphere plays with his pitch movement, but PNC Park will not. Lawrence would have been a key member of the Pirates’ 2025 pen had it not been for elbow problems. However, now he’ll get a chance to play a full season in black and gold. When he does, he will be one of the Pirates’ best relief pitchers. Lawrence even has the potential to get some save opportunities this year.

Honorable mention: Mason Montgomery