Former GM cautions Mets about Pete Alonso’s free agency

Alonso, who turns 31 in December, batted .272/.347/.524 with 38 home runs and a team-best 126 RBIs over 162 games this season. Rebounding from a statistically down 2024 campaign, the five-time All-Star posted his highest OPS (.871) since his historic 2019 rookie season, while also tying Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson for the NL lead in doubles (41).

According to Statcast, Alonso ranked in the top 5% of the league in average exit velocity (93.5 mph), barrel percentage (18.9), and hard-hit percentage (54.4) in 2025, making significant gains in all three categories from the prior year. As Duquette alluded to, Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber posted similar metrics, ranking in the top 3% of MLB hitters in those same categories.

Schwarber, who turns 33 next March, hit .240/.365/.563 while leading the NL in home runs (56) and all of MLB in RBIs (132) across 162 regular-season games in 2025. The lefty slugger ranked in the 98th percentile for average exit velocity, 99th percentile for barrel percentage, and 100th percentile for hard-hit percentage, but finished in the bottom three in strikeouts for the fourth consecutive year.

While Schwarber spends most of his time at designated hitter — unlike Alonso, who started all but three games at first base in 2025 — their markets could directly influence each other. The two sluggers are among the best available power hitters in this year’s free agent class, and despite their defensive limitations, could help transform the middle of any lineup.

After Alonso, the top impending free agent first basemen include Josh Naylor, Ryan O’Hearn, Carlos Santana, and Paul Goldschmidt. Teams seeking a full-time designated hitter could also pursue the soon-to-be 35-year-old Marcell Ozuna, but after him, there is a steep drop-off in available offensive upside.

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Duquette believes Alonso’s camp would sign a contract for five years and $175 million, which has an average annual value of $35 million. That would fall just below fellow first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $35.7 million AAV on the 14-year, $500 million extension he signed with the Toronto Blue Jays this past spring.

Including the $30 million Alonso made in 2025, his earnings would total $205 million over six years — putting him ahead of Freddie Freeman (six years, $162 million) and Matt Olson (eight years, $168 million), comparable first basemen with better defensive metrics. Duquette thinks the Mets can sell him on that, along with cementing him as the third-highest-paid player on the team, behind Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto.