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Baltimore Orioles first baseman Ryan Mountcastle. Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Four hitters who have had the worst luck to start 2023

By Michael Carpenter | Last updated 5/30/23

With about two months in the books of the 2023 MLB season, there have been plenty of surprising starts for hitters. Some have been hot and some have been cold, but these four hitters have experienced just plain old bad luck.

With limits to the shift and the new pitch clock, there has been a boom in offense in 2023 but these hitters haven't been able to reap the benefits.

Using xBA (expected batting average) allows you to get a better idea of how unlucky a hitter truly is by using metrics like exit velocity and launch angle to compare the outcome of a batted ball to previous outcomes with similar metrics.

Keibert Ruiz, Catcher, Washington Nationals

The Nationals catcher might be the unluckiest hitter in all of baseball, hitting a paltry .224 on the season. But Ruiz is seeing a 60-point difference between his batting average and xBA, which checks in at .284.

With the ability to make consistent contact, Ruiz has not been rewarded for his efforts this year as the ball is not dropping with the defense always being in the right place to make the play.

A big piece of the deal that sent former ace pitcher Max Scherzer and shortstop Trea Turner to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2021, the Nationals will be hoping for better results at the dish for the young catcher.

Graph looking at how the Washington Nationals batting averages compare to their expected batting averages. Keibert Ruiz has had an unlucky start to the year. An increase in batting average over the rest of the year is expected if we see no change in his level of play. pic.twitter.com/SVjVZoX5M8
— Ryan Price Statistics (@RyanPriceStats) May 25, 2023

Josh Naylor, first base, Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians slugger, like Ruiz ,has a 60-point difference as well, batting .226 but posting an xBA of .286. Naylor is looking to break out of the slump that has plagued him early this season.

Not only has Naylor been fighting the defense for hits in 2023, but he is also dealing with some blown calls from the umpire as well.

Umpire Doug Eddings was responsible for the largest miss of the day.

This full count pitch to Josh Naylor missed high by 3.94 inches.#Guardians #Orioles pic.twitter.com/UTs4X7b9MJ
— Umpire Auditor (@UmpireAuditor) May 30, 2023

Looking to replicate his success from last year (.256/.319/.452 with 20 home runs), Naylor can only continue to make hard contact and hope for better results as the season moves on.

Ryan Mountcastle, first base, Baltimore Orioles

Leading the Orioles in home runs and just one RBI off the team lead, Mountcastle is putting up great numbers despite the fact that he has an xBA of .278 compared to his .237 batting average good.

Mountcastle has consistently been hitting the ball with exit velocities above 100 mph but is not being rewarded for it except when the ball clear the fence.

If Mountcastle can start getting some other hits to fall, he could continue to put up monster numbers in the middle of the Orioles lineup in 2023.

Pete Alonso, first base, New York Mets

It's hard to put an MVP candidate on a list of unlucky hitters, but when you have a 39-point difference between your batting average and xBA you get a spot.

With 20 home runs in his first 202 at-bats, Alonso has been on a torrid pace at the plate and you can only wonder how those numbers would look if a few of the balls that went for outs found the grass in the outfield for hits.

Pete Alonso 2023:
19 homers
148 wRC+
2 DRS
1 OAA
1.6 fWAR

Notably, he's getting unlucky, his .368 wOBA is lower than his .420 xwOBA, and when he's making contact it's the highest quality in his career

Despite the low average (.239), his xBA is the highest in his career
— Drew (@NYTankingSZN) May 26, 2023

The two-time All-Star is looking to add an MVP trophy to his award cabinet in 2023, but he will be facing stiff competition in division rival Ronald Acuna Jr. of the Atlanta Braves, the favorite to win the award.

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