
With some of the bigger free agent pitchers off the market like Dylan Cease in Toronto and Ranger Suarez now calling Boston home, there are only a few high impact arms left looking for a contract. Perhaps the best one available is former Houston starter Framber Valdez. He has been incredibly durable for the last four seasons, starting at least 28 games in each.
Valdez is coming off of his worst season, but if his worst season is a 3.66 ERA that isn’t too bad. Lots of guys would take that for their best. He just ended on a sour note with an ERA around 6.00 in August and September. That isn’t likely to impact the contract he is about to get, so let’s look at some landing places for Valdez.
This might be the best-case scenario, but perhaps also the least likely. The Astros did extend a qualifying offer, but that was likely to receive a draft pick when Valdez left town. His ERA was more than two runs less at home than on the road, and he struck out 17 more batters in Houston despite pitching three fewer innings there. He also had more road starts in the last two months when he performed much worse. He has pitched well for Houston his entire career, so familiarity and track record alone say this would be the best spot for him.
Is this a joke? Well, kind of. After the Dodgers nuked baseball with the monster Kyle Tucker signing, does any free agent not go to Los Angeles? They certainly have an embarrassment of riches at starting pitcher, but they have also had a crazy run of injuries to their pitchers over the past couple of years. He has thrown 11 shutout innings with 14 strikeouts in his two career starts in Los Angeles, so while this was more hyperbole, this would also be great for his fantasy value.
They did just make a big trade for Ryan Weathers, but after Max Fried are we sure the Yankees are ready to go into the season with this rotation? Will Warren and Cam Schlittler performed admirably last year, but you have to figure that the Yankees are after another starting pitcher. Getting a reliable bulldog and hurting the rival Astros both must be appealing to New York. Valdez is already used to pitching in a stadium with extremely close fences to one side of the field, so I don’t see the short porch at Yankee Stadium being much of an issue. There’s always worry that “some guys can’t handle New York,” but honestly, I think that is made up by Yankee fans as an excuse for bad signings. Valdez has pitched in high-level situations in the playoffs before and can handle any environment.
This might be a bit of a stretch given the depth of young arms the Mets have, but so far this offseason has to be seen as a disappointment. They did bring in Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco and Marcus Semien, but team stalwarts Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil are all gone. Kodai Senga has been a big injury question, and you know the Mets are still trying to beat the little brother syndrome in New York and a big splash like Valdez would win the back pages of the New York newspapers and energize the fan base. Not to mention put a big reliable starter at the top of their rotation. Steve Cohen has money and at times he isn’t afraid to flaunt it.
They did bring in Shane Baz, but Baltimore badly needs more help in the rotation. They were brutal last season after competing for two straight years, and their starting pitching really didn’t help the cause. He has not pitched well in Baltimore in his career, allowing 14 earned runs in just over 20 innings, but that is a small sample size and not something to put a lot of weight in. The AL East is loaded with talented batting orders which would be a bit of a negative against Baltimore as a landing spot, but it might only impact his ranking a spot or two.
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This one is a little bit of a dark horse as the Giants don’t make big splashes in the free agent waters often, but from time to time they make a move and it is generally on the pitching side. They do have Logan Webb and Robbie Ray to anchor their rotation, but after that there are a lot of questions. If the Giants are going to have any chance of competing with the Dodgers, or let’s face it a wild card, they need to improve the rotation. They only missed the playoffs by two games last season, so an addition like Valdez could really impact their win-loss record. Valdez would love pitching at a place with such a spacious outfield and this would be a big win for his fantasy value.
Is Framber Valdez still a top tier starter?
Yes. Even in his worst season, Valdez posted a mid three ERA and continued to provide elite durability and innings volume.
Why did Framber Valdez struggle late last season?
His August and September ERA spiked due to command issues and heavy workload, not a loss of stuff or velocity.
What team is the best fit for Framber Valdez?
Houston remains the best baseball fit, but the Dodgers, Yankees and Giants also offer strong environments for success.
How would Framber Valdez impact fantasy baseball?
Anywhere he lands as a rotation anchor, Valdez profiles as a high floor SP2 with strong wins and innings value.
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