Yesterday’s result had me curled up in the fetal position.

We took Jose Soriano under 4.5 Hits (+120). He was cruising, and after six innings, he only allowed four hits. He was above 80 pitches, and the Angels had a nine-run lead. The Angels even subbed in a few replacements off the bench to give the starters the rest of the game off. However, manager Ron Washington decided to throw him out for the seventh inning, and then AGAIN in the eighth inning.

He got the first two outs in the eighth, and Curtis Mead stepped to the plate to pinch-hit for Yandy Diaz. Soriano busts a sinker in on him, and he hits a dribbler to third base. It was hit so slow that Statcast didn’t even record its exit velocity. The tall grass slowed it even more, and he got to first base. That was Soriano’s fifth hit allowed in the game. He was removed right after.

Those are the bets you laugh off. I would play that 10 times out of 10, and today, we are going right back to the team that put a knife in our back.

2025 Record: 15-6 (+8.27 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros @ 8:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Angels: Jack Kochanowicz (3.27 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 11 Innings)

Astros: Ronel Blanco (9.45 ERA, 2.10 WHIP in 6.2 Innings)

The Angels are playing well right now. The Astros are not. The Angels improved to 9-4 yesterday with an 11-1 win over the Rays, and the Astros are coming off a series loss against the Mariners. The Angels are sizeable underdogs in this one, which doesn’t make much sense when you look at what these teams have done and the matchup at hand.

Due to their aura, the Astros are decent favorites in this one. It’s a simple analysis, but it’s the truth. Nobody expected the Angels to be any good, and the Astros are the preseason favorites to win the division. Now the Angels get the Astros at home, and the market expects things to revert to the mean.

That makes sense, but I’m not buying it. There are too many bad signals with Ronel Blanco, and due to Jose Soriano going deep into the game, the Angels’ bullpen is completely rested behind Kochanowicz. The Angels’ offense has been objectively awesome against right-handed bats, and the Astros have been one of the worst.

According to my model, the wrong team is favored, creating the most value on a moneyline wager this season. 

Let’s start with Ronel Blanco. Last year, there were warning signs that his 2.80 ERA was unsustainable. Every single one of his underlying ERA predictors was over 4.00. My favorite, SIERA, had Blanco at a 4.17. He allowed too many walks (22nd percentile), got barrelled often (19th percentile), and doesn’t consistently keep the ball on the ground (36th percentile).

This season is showing much of the same. He’s walking more batters than usual, and his 31.6% ground-ball rate is one of the worst in the league. Blanco is not getting barrelled as often, but the results still aren’t there for him. He’s also seen a slight drop-off in stuff to start the season.

Three of his four pitches have decreased velocity: his fastball has reduced from 93.4 MPH to 92.9 MPH, his slider has dropped from 86.4 MPH to 85.5 MPH, and his changeup has fallen in the same direction. Those aren’t significant drop-offs, but it’s something to monitor early in the season. This is when his arm should be fresh, not down from last season.

He faced the Angels twice last year, spinning two excellent outings. Overall, he allowed just two runs in 12 innings of work. However, the Angels lineup he faced had only three of the Angels current lineup: Taylor Ward, Nolan Schanuel, and Logan O’Hoppe. This lineup is so much better than it was late in September last year, and of those who have faced Blanco before, it’s gone well for them.

It’s not a large sample, but over 33 PA, Angels’ bats are hitting .345 with a .413 xwOBA and a .579 xSLG. The three bats Blanco did see in O’Hoppe, Ward, and Schanuel combined to go 8-19 (.421) with three doubles and a home run. The Angels’ offense has a 123 wRC+ against righties to start the year, the sixth-best mark in baseball.

The Astros bullpen got the day off yesterday, so they should be relatively fresh, outside of Bryan Abreu, who threw 30 pitches on Wednesday. It’s not a bullpen I’m afraid of, as they sit 13th in ERA and 13th in WHIP.

On the flip side, the Astros get a date with Jack Kochanowicz. He’s a relatively unknown name, but he has some talent. Similarly to Soriano, he relies on a mid-90s sinker. Jack is not the pitcher Soriano is, but he is a dependable starter. The Astros have never seen him; nobody in the lineup has recorded an at-bat against him. With a heavy sinker-baller, the Astros will likely feed the infield grass with ground balls all day.

Kochanowicz likely won’t continue pitching at a 3.27 ERA level, but he does own the SIERA advantage this season over Blanco (4.20 vs 4.68).

Instead of hoping this Astros offense finally comes to play, I’d rather fade them. They have a 77 wRC+ against righties to start the season. To put that in perspective, the Miami Marlins sit one spot above at 78. Houston has scored 38 runs this year, tied with the Braves for second to last, and just three runs more than the White Sox. Against right-handed pitching at home over 196 PA, they have a 54 wRC+, which is the worst mark in baseball.

The Angels’ bullpen is in a great rest spot. None of their key arms have had any work over the past two days. Kenley Jansen, Ben Joyce, and Ryan Zeferjahn haven’t thrown since Tuesday. After Kohanowicz exits, we should see the best the Angels have.

The Angels have a slight starting pitching and offensive advantage in this one. I like the Astros’ bullpen better, but the Angels’ bullpen is in the perfect spot. Even though the Astros are at home, I make the Angels a -105 favorite, making the Astros +105. At +134, I see 40 cents of value, easily the most significant edge of any moneyline wager. I would take the Angels down to +115.