The San Francisco Giants were expected to be one of the higher spenders heading into this offseason. There was a clear need for improvement all over the pitching staff, while second base and right field could have used an increase in production as well.
So far, that hasn’t been the case. While there’s still over a month until spring training, it’s been quiet in San Francisco for the majority of the winter.
Outside of some minor bullpen additions, the only real moves have been adding two back-end rotation arms. Adrian Houser and, more recently, Tyler Mahle, are the two most notable additions to the Giants’ roster.
While fans may be disappointed in the quality of the arms that Buster Posey has opted to add to the rotation, they do offer affordability with a decent amount of upside.
Mahle is quietly coming off the best season of his career in terms of run prevention. In 16 starts, he posted a 2.18 ERA and 0.52 home runs per nine innings, which was the fourth-best mark in baseball among starters who threw at least 60 innings.
Mahle’s impressive season came under former Giants manager and now special advisor to the president Bruce Bochy, who appears to be part of the reason for his signing with San Francisco.
It’s one thing to see it in a text message or on a phone call. It’s quite another to sit across from a Hall of Fame manager [Bochy] and hear them say, ‘I really believe in this guy.’
-Giants GM Zack Minasian via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area
The one thing missing in Mahle’s 2025 was a surplus of innings, which he has only provided once in his big league career. From 2023 to 2025, he’s combined for just 123.6 frames.
That’s a steep drop from the guy at the top of the rotation, Logan Webb, who just became the first starter to throw 200 innings in three consecutive seasons since Justin Verlander in the late 2010s.
However, in the one season in which Mahle was available for every start, he was nails. In 2021, he hurled 180 innings (33 starts) with a 3.75 ERA while accumulating 3.9 fWAR. It was his most valuable season by far and the only one where he surpassed 130 innings and 26 starts in his career.
Surely, the Giants are hoping that the injury bug that has constantly hurt Mahle is gone and they receive something similar to the 2021 version of the now 31-year-old.
During a Zoom with reporters, Tyler Mahle said this is the best he's felt since '21 when he made 33 starts.
— Justice delos Santos (@justdelossantos) January 5, 2026
Mahle said he made mechanical changes last offseason that have helped. He added that he got injured in '25 because he tried to make a mechanical change on his own.
According to several reports from the Giants’ beat, Mahle feels the same way. He’s looking to use this one-year pact to prove that the production he provided for the Rangers and Bochy in 2025 wasn’t a fluke.
While Giants fans may have been hoping for an arm at the top of the market, Mahle offers some considerable upside — if he can stay healthy — and at just $10 million, if San Francisco can get anything close to Mahle’s 2021 season, it’s a win.
The Giants are still projected to have a bottom-third rotation in baseball, even after the additions this offseason. The 10.4 wins above replacement that FanGraphs is predicting from the group ranks 24th among Major League Baseball teams.
While it is just a projection, it’s a bit concerning that the model suggests significant regression from every starter in the rotation outside of Webb.
| Pitcher | 2025 Stats | 2026 Projections (FanGraphs DC) |
| Logan Webb | 3.22 ERA, 207.0 IP, 5.5 fWAR | 3.32 ERA, 202.0 IP, 4.1 fWAR |
| Robbie Ray | 3.65 ERA, 182.1 IP, 2.2 fWAR | 4.20 ERA, 180.0 IP, 1.6 fWAR |
| Tyler Mahle | 2.18 ERA, 86.2 IP, 1.9 fWAR | 4.17 ERA, 148.0 IP, 1.4 fWAR |
| Adrian Houser | 3.31 ERA, 125.0 IP, 2.3 fWAR | 4.34 ERA, 147.0 IP, 1.1 fWAR |
| Landen Roupp | 3.80 ERA, 106.2 IP, 1.1 fWAR | 4.09 ERA, 122.0 IP, 1.1 fWAR |
The Giants, however, have confidence in their group and the guys they’ve brought in.
I think we’re very comfortable with the five that we have and then the bundle of [young] arms we have behind them.
-Minasian via Pavlovic
San Francisco is going to have a nice test for its brand new coaching staff, as the front office has undoubtedly taken the risky route this offseason. Posey and Minasian could’ve ponied up to pay one of the arms at the top of the market like a Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez, or Tatsuya Imai.
Instead, they decided to snag guys at a much lower tier, hoping to squeeze as much value out of them as possible.
The Giants’ window to compete is open now, especially after they acquired Rafael Devers last season. If things go wrong, the front office and ownership will have to hear it from the fans.
Willy Adames and Matt Chapman are only getting older, and additions like Mahle raise questions about the team’s commitment to competing and bringing winning baseball back to the Bay.
Posey and Minasian are taking a calculated risk with their rotation additions heading into 2026, and only time will tell whether it helps put a stop to the seemingly never-ending mediocrity of recent Giants baseball.
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