Giants vs. Padres prediction, pick, odds for Fri. 9/6

Nick Martin’s Giants vs. Padres Preview

San Francisco Giants Betting Preview: Bullpen Running Low on Fuel

It's been a tough go thus far at the big league level for Mason Black, who has allowed one home run in every start this season. He was recalled from Triple-A last Sunday due to Robbie Ray's injury, and managed the best start of his career versus Miami, allowing two earned runs and five hits across five innings of work. The Marlins hit to a .233 xBA in the game, and struck-out 33% of the time versus Black.

The Giants bullpen has been a strength recently in pitching to a 3.05 ERA and 3.69 xFIP over the last 30 days. San Francisco's starters combined to work only 6 2/3 innings over the last three days versus Arizona though, and as a result the bullpen is pretty taxed ahead of this matchup.

The Giants' lineup has been significantly more effective against lefties than righties over the last two years, and that has continued recently. Since the All-Star break, San Francisco has hit to a wRC+ of just 88 versus RHP, and has struck-out 26% of the time.

San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Michael King in Strong Form

Michael King's form has not trailed off after his strong start to the campaign, as he holds a 2.50 ERA and 3.71 xFIP over his last 39 2/3 innings. He has struck-out 10.29 batters per nine in that span, and allowed an xBA of just .202.

It's been a quietly large sample of strong results from King, as his 2.82 ERA since 2022 ranks fifth among starters to throw over 182 innings. Opposing batters hold a 30% whiff-rate in that span, which is the 13th-best mark among qualified starters.

If Fernando Tatis Jr. can also reach top form, the Padres should hold one of the deepest lineups in baseball, and they have been highly effective against righties in specific. Since the All-Star break the Padres rank third in wRC+ at 124, and also rank third in hard-hit rate.

Giants vs. Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis: Take San Diego to Cover

The case for a bet on the Giants here would revolve around the idea that Black has clearly underachieved his potential in his initial five outings of the season. Even with that in mind, I still don't believe the Padres are a large enough favorite in this matchup given how dominant King has been and how scary this lineup looks right now.

The Giants bullpen is also in rough shape after yesterday, and even if Black is able to put together his best MLB outing, we could still see the Padres find a way to generate some offense late in this matchup.

Pick: Padres -1.5 (-105, bet365)

Moneyline

Over/Under

Giants vs. Padres Betting Trends

• 10% of the bets and 14% of the money are on the Giants on the moneyline.
• 98% of the bets and 98% of the money are on the over.
• 12% of the bets and 68% of the money are on the Giants to cover the run line.

Giants Betting Trends

• The Giants have lost seven of their last ten games
• The Giants are 8-7 over their last 15 games on the road
• The Giants are 31-38 on the road against the spread

Padres Betting Trends

• The Padres are 6-4 in their last ten games
• The Padres are 10-5 in their last 15 games at home
• The Padres are 36-50 as a favorite this season

About the Author

Nick Martin is a writer for The Action Network's NHL and MLB verticals, and is a co-host of Action's Line Change hockey podcast. Before becoming a full-time writer and handicapper, he acquired numerous personal and group training certifications and worked full-time in the fitness and recreation fields.

Follow Nick Martin @nickm_hockey on Twitter/X.