Glossary: xFIP for Fantasy Baseball

Why xFIP Matters More Than ERA

ERA Is Not a Predictive Stat

Look, it is important to have a good team ERA.  That is one of the statistics that is ALWAYS used in fantasy baseball.  If you want to see other ways to identify players who will give you a great ERA, please read How to Draft for ERA in Fantasy Baseball 2026. It helps tell you what has already happened. It is not very good at telling you what is likely to happen next. It depends on the defense behind the pitcher, the ballpark, the bullpen, the scorekeeper, and a lot of random outcomes. In fantasy baseball, you win by predicting future performance. That’s why ERA should not be your primary way of judging pitchers.

xFIP Helps You See Regression or Growth Coming

When there is a large gap between ERA and xFIP, it usually means the pitcher will get better or worse.  He will get better if his xFIP is better than ERA and vice versa. 

Here is the process for figuring it out.  

If the pitcher has a high ERA but a much lower xFIP, look at the underlying skills (we look at velocity, pitch mix, workload expectations, swinging strike percentage (SwK), strikeout per walk (K-BB%), and first pitch strike percentage (FpK).  We will dive into these metrics in the next columns.  If those metrics are strong and show that the pitcher is throwing well, he is likely to have better results when he is luckier (BABIP comes back to normal), faces different teams, in different ballparks with different weather.

If a pitcher has a low ERA but a much higher xFIP, it usually means he has been lucky or has played in good conditions against bad teams in pitcher’s parks.  In this case, we check the skills-based metrics we referenced above and his BABIP.  He is likely to have a low BABIP to show that he has been lucky or played in a good pitcher’s ballpark in cold weather.  These are all factors.

How To Use xFIP for Fantasy Baseball

It is important not to assume that you will be right about every player because of xFIP being significantly lower than ERA.  Simply is not true.  Sometimes the growth will come years later, or they lose confidence, and the skills metrics deteriorate.  Pitchers are human.  Use the SMART System to guide you and add this as one more data point.

Spotting Breakout Pitchers for Your Draft

Pitchers who strike out hitters and limit walks usually carry strong xFIP numbers even if their ERA looks rough. If you see a young arm with a 4.70 ERA but a 3.60 xFIP, that is a huge signal that improvement is coming. These pitchers often come at a discount because your league mates focus too heavily on ERA.

Folding xFIP Into Rankings

xFIP works best when you combine it with other things.  As we mentioned, when looking at pitchers, you should look at base stats trends to see if a player is locked into an area.  Then we look at velocity, pitch mix, workload expectations, swinging strike percentage (SwK), strikeout per walk (K-BB%), and first pitch strike percentage (FpK) to see where we expect a player to head … up or down.

So, look at all those factors to determine how you rank starting pitchers.  For relief pitchers, xFIP plays a lesser role as the shifts in ERA among closers are more associated with environment, managerial atmosphere, and injuries.  Many MLB players will play through injuries and it shows up with worse performance.  That is most prevalent among relief pitchers.

Finding Draft Upside

When you are looking for the high upside end game pitchers, xFIP is a way to find a place to start.  After identifying xFIP gaps, I love to look at pitch mix and SwK for his pitches.  Then determine if the pitcher has added a pitch or is working on one that was not working well.  This kind of news on a player can identify breakout pitchers or better those late round or inexpensive contributors that win championships.

Using xFIP During the Season

Both xFIP and BABIP are great indicators during the season.  

Evaluating Hot and Cold Starts

We previously taught you how to use BABIP to identify if a pitcher has been lucky.  You also need to look at where he has played and against what teams.  xFIP can help see through whether that matters, but it cannot be used until a certain number of appearances have been logged.  I generally don’t use BABIP or xFIP until the pitcher has logged 10 starts.

Streaming Pitchers and xFIP

The most important thing when streaming pitchers is who they play and where THIS WEEK.  xFIP can be a check to see where to order them in your waivers or how much to bid in FABB.  Identifying the players should be done FIRST.

Conclusion: Using xFIP

As I mentioned in the How to play with OBP article, adding columns to your cheat sheet can be an effective way to identify target players.  I add a column, DiffERA, which is for the difference between ERA and xERA, which largely uses xFIP as a component.  Then I use that to help me find diamonds in the rough who will be in the middle of the diamond.

People Also Ask

1. What does xFIP mean in baseball?
   xFIP is short for "expected fielding independent pitching," which estimates a pitcher's ability to prevent runs when considering strikeouts, walks, and fly-ball rates. It also normalizes home run luck.
2. Is xFIP better than ERA for fantasy baseball?
   Many times, it is better. That's because xFIP eliminates defense and pure luck, which helps aid the forecasting of performance in the future.
3. What is a good xFIP number?
   An xFIP number of 3.70 or lower is good. An xFIP of 3:30 or lower is considered to be excellent.
4. Why does xFIP normalize home runs?
   Home run rates are subject to luck, ballparks, and weather. xFIP takes HRs and replaces them with average HR/FB rates. That helps to stabilize evaluation.
5. How can xFIP help with fantasy baseball draft strategy?
   It focuses on whether pitchers are likely to improve or regress. That enables managers to look for undervalued pitchers and avoid hurlers whose ERAs are not sustainable.