Good-bye! Tonight's MLB Home Run Calls

Everyone knows bettors dig the longball — so every day I post my favorite Home Run calls for a fun, low-risk approach to baseball betting. Homers continue trending downward leaguewide, so finding the perfect spot's more important than ever.

You asked for more Home Run calls, so I responded! At this point in the season, we've established our basic foundation for sniffing out longballs. Identify the pitchers working up in the zone with limited stuff against hitters that lift and pull batted balls in above-average contextual environments.

Make sure to bookmark our Athlon Sports Betting tab to be first on a full array of free cheat sheets and parlays daily to save you time and money.

Tonight's SP Home Run Targets (min 2 of 3): +40% Flyball, +44% Hard Hit Allowed, or +1.7 HR/9

• CLE Slade Cecconi — 48.0 IP; 44.9% Flyball, 50.7% Hard Hit, 1.7 HR/9 vs. HOU
• PIT Bailey Falter — 92.2 IP; 42.3% Flyball, 44.6% Hard Hit, 1.2 HR/9 vs. KC
• ATL Bryce Elder — 73.0 IP; 28.4% Flyball, 47.4% Hard Hit, 2.0 HR/9 vs. ATH
• ATH Mitch Spence — 29.2 IP; 33.0% Flyball, 44.1% Hard Hit, 1.8 HR/9 vs. ATL
• BAL Tomoyuki Sugano — 93.1 IP; 39.7% Flyball, 38.5% Hard Hit, 1.8 HR/9 vs. NYM

(For transparency's sake, I tweak handedness splits to adjust for plate appearance sample size)

Opposing Hitters with +65% Flyball/Line Drive (FBLD), +40% Hard Hit, +15% Air-Pull (min 25 PA)

• HOU Cam Smith vs RHP — 40 PA; 78% FBLD, 44% Hard Hit, 13% Air-Pull, 2 HR
• KC Maikel Garcia vs LHP — 25 PA; 65% FBLD, 50% Hard Hit, 20% Air-Pull, 1 HR
• ATH Nick Kurtz vs RHP — 38 PA; 67% FBLD, 50% Hard Hit, 22% Air-Pull, 3 HR
• ATL Matt Olson vs. RHP — 27 PA; 71% FBLD, 65% Hard Hit, 24% Air-Pull, 2 HR
• NYM Juan Soto vs. RHP — 34 PA; 78% FBLD, 65% Hard Hit, 22% Air-Pull, 4 HR

* Exception made for elite player right on the bubble

It bears repeating — you cannot understate the importance of hitters that pull elevated batted ball events when tracking homers. For reference, Cal Raleigh's a perfect example of pull power's impact... his combo of 74% FBLD, 49% Hard Hit, and 32% Air-Pull (!) is why he leads all of MLB in Home Runs Over Expectation (7.4)

Weather's warming up bigtime and we got flyball pitchers on the bump... the perfect recipe for longballs - GOOD LUCK!

LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:

Trust me, I love betting dingers as much as the next gambler. That said, being in the business of profitability means playing smart to avoid depositing. Long story short, leaguewide home run rates continue to nosedive year-over-year, yet the pricing reflects the exact opposite. Act accordingly.

To remain sustainable in longshot markets, you need a plan, and I wish it were as easy as 1-2-3. Sure, planning your ticket's simple whenever all the odds come in long. The problems arise when HRs get listed around (+350). 

Ideally you want to be in a situation where one ding-dong spells profit, so don't be afraid to micromanage risk balance.

TODAY'S HR RESULTS AND BEST PRICES:

• HOU Cam Smith (+630) Fanduel
• KC Maikel Garcia (+870) Fanduel
• ATH Nick Kurtz (+350) MGM
• ATL Matt Olson (+285) Fanduel
• NYM Juan Soto (+230) MGM

Have to get some action down anytime our little process spits out a hitter over (+500) to go yard — so count me in for straight bets on Cam Smith, HOU and Maikel Garcia, KC. 

As far as the remaining trio goes, pricing makes it near impossible to scale while staying +EV so the answer's either leave them alone or put a buck on the (+3200) miracle all three connect.