Guardians seem closer to selling significant pieces

The Cleveland Guardians seem to be getting closer to selling significant pieces. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that Cleveland is “trying to move” both left fielder Steven Kwan and starting pitcher Shane Bieber. Both players have been mentioned in plenty of trade rumors over the past few days, though Kwan has generally been seen as more of a long-shot candidate.

If the Guardians are truly motivated to deal Kwan, they’d have no issue doing so. He’s one of their most valuable trade chips and would bring back a huge return. Kwan is playing on a $4.175M salary and is under arbitration control for another two seasons. The two-time All-Star is hitting .286/.351/.410 with nine homers and 11 stolen bases in 448 plate appearances. He’s one of four hitters with at least 300 plate appearances who has walked more often than he has struck out.

Kwan is a career .285/.358/.398 hitter. He’s also probably the game’s best defensive left fielder. He has won a Gold Glove in each of his first three seasons. While Statcast’s Outs Above Average gives him an uncharacteristically average grade this season, Defensive Runs Saved (+13) still views him as the gold standard at the position. The well-rounded skillset makes Kwan an ideal leadoff hitter. The Dodgers, Blue Jays, Padres and Phillies have previously been linked to him. Jon Heyman of The New York Post adds the Reds to the list of interested teams. Speculatively speaking, the Astros could also use a left fielder and are known to be targeting left-handed bats.

While the Guardians will sort through plenty of offers on Kwan, Bieber is a more challenging trade candidate. That’s not an indictment on him as a player but a reflection of his contract structure. The former Cy Young winner underwent Tommy John surgery last April. That was his walk year, and he re-signed with Cleveland on a two-year deal that allowed him to opt out after the first season. Bieber is playing on a $10M salary and has to decide between a $16M player option or a $4M buyout at year’s end.

An acquiring team would take on a little more than $3.2M in salary the rest of the way. That’s plenty manageable, but the buyout would push that above $7.2M. That’s what a team would owe for two months if Bieber were playing on a $22M salary as opposed to a $10M sum. That also doesn’t account for the risk that he suffers an injury setback or doesn’t pitch well and decides to stick with next year’s $16M salary, which he’d only do if he feels he couldn’t beat that on the free agent market.

Bieber has not made a major league start this season. He’s closing in on his season debut after making his fourth minor league rehab appearance last night. He reached four innings and 58 pitches with Double-A Akron. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote Tuesday that other teams would have a heavy scouting presence in attendance. While those scouts’ opinions on Bieber’s stuff will hold far more weight than the results against Double-A hitters, the veteran righty had an impressive outing — one run on three hits and a hit batter with seven strikeouts.

While the Guardians could hold firm to a huge ask on Kwan, they should be more motivated to deal with Bieber if they’re committed to selling. They have to expect him to opt out if he looks like his pre-surgery self, even more so as the No. 3 type starter he was in 2023, as opposed to a return to the top of a rotation. Cleveland is a manageable 3.5 games back in the wild-card chase, but they have three teams to jump and saw the path get a lot steeper when Emmanuel Clase was placed on administrative leave pending a gambling investigation.