History May Impact Yordan Alvarez's MVP Chance

Houston Astros left fielder Yordan Alvarez (44) celebrates hitting a double. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

History May Impact Yordan Alvarez's MVP Chance

Originally posted on Houston Astros on SI
By Thomas Heiberger | Last updated Jul 18, 2026 8:00 PM ET

Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez is in rarified air as the odds-on favorite to win the AL MVP. Leading the league in all three triple crown categories (home runs, RBIs, and batting average), Alvarez has the numbers to justify winning an MVP. However, if the Astros can’t turn their season around, what kind of precedent is there for an MVP to come from a losing team in recent years?

Houston has managed to dig itself out of a 20-32 hole to their current mark of 47-52 ahead of Saturday's game. The Astros still sit below .500, which puts a slight damper on an MVP-caliber season.

The History Alvarez Might Join

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Shohei Ohtani in 2023 with the Los Angeles Angels was the last MVP whose team finished with a losing record. But Ohtani’s season was unprecedented, with 6.1 bWAR hitting and 3.8 bWAR pitching for a total of 9.9 bWAR, far and away the best in the league, leading to his second of four unanimous MVPs. Yordan doesn’t currently lead the league in WAR, which can be attributed to the negative marks that come from playing primarily as a designated hitter.

Ohtani also won an MVP in 2021 with an incredibly balanced season between pitching and hitting as a member of the 77-85 Angels. He posted 4.9 bWAR as a position player and 4.1 bWAR as a pitcher.

The last player not named Ohtani to win the MVP award on a losing team was Mike Trout in 2019, also an Angel. Trout finished third to Alex Bregman and Marcus Semien in bWAR that year, but won the award on account of his league-leading OPS (1.083). He also won an MVP award on a losing team in 2016 with the 74-88 Angels.

The last non-Angel to win an MVP on a losing team was Giancarlo Stanton in 2017 with the Miami Marlins. Stanton hit 59 homers on the year and drove in 132, both tops in the National League. Stanton led the league in bWAR in 2017. The last AL MVP from a losing team not named the Angels was Alex Rodriguez’s 2003 season, in which he posted 8.4 bWAR.

The Astros' high MVP finishes over the last 10 years are well-documented, but the last Astros to receive MVP votes on a losing team was Jose Altuve in 2014 when he finished in 13th. Houston has never had a player finish in the top six in MVP in the 26 seasons where the Astros finished with a losing record.

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The best finish came with Jeff Bagwell’s seventh-place showing on the 2000 Astros team that was strong on offense but sorely lacking in the pitching department. Jose Cruz was the only other top 10 finisher on a losing Houston team. Cruz registered an eighth-place finish in 1984.

The odds show that Yordan Alvarez will get strong consideration for MVP if he continues his torrid pace, but he’d be in uncharted Astros waters if the team can’t turn the season around.

This article first appeared on Houston Astros on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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