Home Run Derby best bets: Can Pete Alonso get it done?

It's a challenging time of the year for sports bettors everywhere. MLB is taking its midseason hiatus for the All-Star break, the NFL, NBA, and NHL seasons are still months away, and the only major sporting event being played Monday is across the pond at Wimbledon. This is a time for us bettors to get creative to find valuable wagers, so let's do just that with some action for Monday night's Home Run Derby. 

Fading the ice-cold Polar Bear

Pete Alonso has won two of the last three runnings of the Home Run Derby, but we have him on full fade watch this year. The New York Mets slugger enters the All-Star break riding a wicked slump, as he's batting .147 and has hit just four home runs in his last 20 games played. Alonso also ranks 139th in MLB this season in average exit velocity. We're sensing a dud Monday night, so let's try to play against him.

Julio Rodriguez to beat Pete Alonso (+138 FanDuel)

In his Home Run Derby debut last year, Julio Rodriguez slugged 53 homers in the first two rounds and knocked Alonso out of the competition before losing, 19-18, to Juan Soto in the Finals. Rodriguez gets another crack at Alonso this year in the first round, and based on how well he performed in 2022, we don't think he should be this big of an underdog. Take J-Rod to pull off the upset.

Pete Alonso under 42.5 home runs (-125 DraftKings)

If we don't think Alonso is going to make it out of the first round, it stands to reason we love his under 42.5 total home runs. Even if the Polar Bear beats Rodriguez, he'll be staring down a tough matchup against either Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Mookie Betts in the second round. This under could still hit if Alonso reaches the semifinals. 

Mookie Betts to win Home Run Derby (+1800 FanDuel)

The disrespect! 

Mookie Betts is tied with Alonso and Luis Robert Jr. for the third-most home runs in MLB this season (26). He also enters the Home Run Derby as one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Over his last 12 games played, Betts is batting .405 with seven homers and eight doubles. It won't be easy to get past Guerrero Jr. in the first round, but if Betts pulls off the upset, he can beat every other hitter in this field.

DraftKings has Betts at +1100 to win the Home Run Derby, so this is a steal of a price at +1800.

In the news ...

Victor Wembanyama dominates after rough Summer League debut — Those who watched Wembanyama for the first time in his NBA Summer League debut Friday didn't come away impressed. The French phenom went 2-13 from the field and finished with just nine points against the Charlotte Hornets, but he didn't take much time to shut up his critics. Against the Portland Trail Blazers Sunday, Wembanyama dominated with 27 points, 12 rebounds and three blocks on 7-14 shooting and 2-4 from three. Maybe we overreacted a bit to one bad game. Wemby is still -130 to win Rookie of the Year.

USMNT beats Canada in thrilling fashion to reach Gold Cup semifinals — Sunday's Gold Cup quarterfinal match between the United States and Canada was a snoozer until the very end of extra time. In the 88th minute, Brandon Vasquez opened the scoring to give the U.S. a 1-0 lead, but Canada quickly answered back with a penalty goal from Steven Vitoria in the 93rd minute. Both teams scored in extra time to send the match to a penalty shootout, where the U.S. triumphed, 3-2. The USMNT will now face Panama Wednesday in the Gold Cup semifinals. The U.S. is -180 to win in regular time.

LSU teammates make history by going 1-2 in MLB Draft — The 2023 MLB Draft kicked off with some history Sunday night, as LSU players Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews became the first college teammates to get drafted first and second overall. Skenes, a hard-throwing right-handed pitcher, went No. 1 to the Pittsburgh Pirates, while Crews, a center fielder, went No. 2 to the Washington Nationals.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Jack Dougherty