Houston Astros Emerging Pitcher Can Take Performance to Next Level With Adjustment

When the Houston Astros traded right fielder Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs, there weren’t many people paying much mind to the inclusion of pitcher Hayden Wesneski.

A lot of focus was on third baseman Isaac Paredes, who was going to be tasked with replacing star Alex Bregman, who departed in free agency and signed a deal with the Boston Red Sox. Top prospect Cam Smith was considered the crown jewel of the return package.

Wesneski’s inclusion was a bit of an afterthought, but he was an important get for the Astros.

Given the concerns they had with their starting rotation, as several players were returning from injuries, he was going to fill a prominent role right from the start.

That has been the case with Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier not being ready to return yet. Add on the freak accident Spencer Arrighetti was involved in that led to a fractured hand and the regression of Ronel Blanco, and Wesneski is now the team’s No. 3 starter.

He has more than held his own through his first three starts and 18 innings with a 4.00 ERA. His expected ERA is in the 4.50 range and his FIP is 4.95, which indicates that some negative regression could be on the horizon.

However, there are some real positives to what he has accomplished thus far.

Wesneski has racked up 21 strikeouts thus far for an elite 30.9% strikeout rate. Even more impressive is the pinpoint control he is exhibiting, issuing only three free passes for a minuscule 4.4% walk rate.

Keeping up those ratios will certainly help improve his numbers across the board, since he has an impressive 0.722 WHIP to this point.

The only real knock against him to this point has been his inability to limit the long ball. He has already allowed five home runs and 2.5 per nine innings, which would be the worst mark in a single season of his career.

But, as shared by Michael Salfino of The Athletic (subscription required), there is one way for him to keep hitters off balance and pitch at a high level: lean into the offerings that are producing the best.

“He should use his sinker and its 80% put-away rate more than 8.7% of the time,” he wrote.

That has the makings of being an elite strikeout pitch. On top of that, throwing more sinkers should result in more ground balls being hit by his opponents.

Part of the reason that his advanced stats don’t reflect his actual production is that he has a 34.9% fly ball rate and only a 27.9% ground ball rate. Those are tough ratios to maintain an ERA under 4.00 with, as more damage is done when the ball is put in the air.

Throwing his sinker more will get those numbers back to his career norms and help him continue his breakout campaign.