How Blue Jays’ remaining schedule can impact playoff fate

To win the AL East this season, it’ll likely require around 95 wins based on the current standings — the Yankees won with 94 last season. That should be reasonably attainable for the Blue Jays at this point, meaning they’d need to finish 13-6 down the stretch to reach that mark. And here’s how that could work:

• TOR wins all six of its remaining series versus HOU, BAL, TBR (twice), KCR & BOS
• TOR secures two series sweeps but loses one & splits the four-game set versus TBR
• TOR secures one series sweep, wins four others & loses one

Any of those three scenarios would ensure the Blue Jays finish with 95 wins. There aren’t any easy games from here, especially since 16 of their final 19 are against teams with a .500 record or better. If they can pull off this feat, though, it’ll essentially guarantee they not only win the division but also claim one of the top two seeds in the AL, bypassing the wild-card round.

Math would be on the Blue Jays’ side in that case.

Since Toronto holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over New York, if the Blue Jays finish with 95 wins, it’d mean the Yankees — who also have 19 games remaining, with all but six versus sub-.500 teams — would have to reach 96 to overtake them for the division. At 80-63, that’d mean finishing 16-3 the rest of the way. Not an easy task, especially with a pair of three-game sets against the Tigers and Red Sox this week.

Speaking of those Red Sox, they’d essentially have to play perfect baseball from here on out to steal the division away from the Blue Jays and Yankees. With only 17 games remaining and an 80-65 record, reaching 96 wins — as Toronto also owns the tiebreaker against Boston — would mean they’d have to finish 16-1 or better, providing them with a razor-thin margin for error in this scenario.

Now, as for securing a first-round bye in the post-season, this is where the Houston Astros factor into the equation. They currently lead the AL West at 78-66 with 18 games remaining — one less than both the Blue Jays and Yankees — and three of those will be played at the Rogers Centre this week, beginning with Tuesday’s series opener.

The Astros swept the Blue Jays during a three-game set at Daikin Park (formerly known as Minute Maid Park) back in April. So, the best they can do is split the season series with a sweep of their own this time around. But, as we already established above, they don’t necessarily need a sweep here. Taking two of three will do just fine.

To reach 95 wins, Houston needs to win 17 of its 18 remaining games heading into this week’s pivotal series in Toronto. So, if they drop two of three during this upcoming showdown, the most they could finish with is 94. But they’d need to win out over their final 15 contests to do it.

Even for a series in early September, there’s plenty on the line here — for both teams.

For those wondering about the Tigers, who currently trail the Blue Jays by half a game for the AL’s best record, they don’t hold as much importance in this team’s playoff fate because of how far back the Astros are from the other two division leaders. As such, if Toronto and Detroit end this season with roughly 95 wins, they’ll likely advance straight to the ALDS as the top two division winners.

Simply put, if the Blue Jays take care of business, everything else will fall into place. They won’t need to worry about anyone else. Any slippage, though, and it’ll open the door even further for the Yankees and Astros.

This isn’t about just making the post-season anymore. It’s not even about just winning the AL East. It’s about avoiding the unpredictable best-of-three series that lies ahead in the wild-card round, which has proven fatal for this franchise in each of its last three playoff appearances (2020, 2022, 2023).

Despite stumbling lately, enduring a stretch without playing their best brand of baseball, the Blue Jays remain capable of checking off all those boxes.