Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

How Concerning Are Aaron Nola's Early Struggles For Phillies?

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Mike Ostrowski | Last updated Apr 16, 2025 11:30 PM ET

Wednesday night's Phillies game was almost over before it started, and their starting pitcher was largely to blame.

Aaron Nola - Philly's longest-tenured player - was on the mound, and things got ugly right in the first inning. His usually pristine command vanished immediately and led to two walks, four hits, and four runs scored by the San Francisco Giants.

The G-men would add on three more runs later and hand Nola his fourth straight loss to begin the season.

This wasn't an isolated incident for Nola, who has allowed 16 earned runs in 21.2 innings - a 6.65 ERA - along with a 1.52 WHIP to start the year. When you look beyond the surface stats, it's easy to see why he's struggling.

The 31-year-old's fastball velocity has been trending down since 2021, but it may be going from a small slope to a nosedive. So far, he's been averaging just 90.8 mph - all the way down in the 8th percentile of major leaguers, according to data from Baseball Savant. His pinpoint accuracy of past seasons is also disappearing.

Home runs have been an issue for the Louisiana man for quite some time - he gave up 62 total the past two seasons but got around that defect with his remarkable offspeed pitches. Just two years ago, Nola was one of the best in the game at getting hitters to chase out of the zone. Now, not only are they laying off the junk pitches more, they're barreling up over 12% of the ones they do hit.

None of that is a good sign for the Phillies, who have entrusted Nola to be part of their rotation for the next six years. He's still being paid like a front-line starter - with an average salary of 24.5 million - but may not longer be capable of those results.

With the club's World Series window starting to close, they'll have to hope that this is just a rough stretch from their former ace and not the wear of his over 1,600 career innings pitched catching up on his arm. There are enough other issues going on that they don't need to add starting pitching to the list.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: