How do the Cubs Absorb the Loss of Daniel Palencia?

Earlier in the season, the Chicago Cubs finally looked like they had found their next lockdown closer.

Pre All-Star break, Daniel Palencia had been lights out. He earned the closer role in mid-May after offseason acquisition Ryan Pressly struggled to close out games. Palencia got his first save on May 21 against the Marlins, and over his next 23 appearances he had a 0.78 ERA and went 14-for-14 in save opportunities. 

However, he struggled in August. He posted a 5.23 ERA, allowing 6 earned runs in 10.1 innings of work in the month. After looking invincible through June and July, he had an inconsistent August. Unfortunately, things wouldn’t improve from there for Palencia.

A Disastrous September

On Friday, September 5, the Cubs delivered an impressive 11-5 victory in their series opener against the Nationals. Following this offensive explosion, they proceeded to score just four runs in the following two games. 

However, going into the ninth inning of the rubber match on Sunday, it was looking like they were going to get away with a series win. Leading 3-1, Palencia entered the game.

Well, Robert Hassell III would lead off the inning with a solo home run, followed by a CJ Abrams single and a James Wood walk. Then, Josh Bell cleared the bases with a three-run home run, giving the Nationals a 5-3 lead and stunning Wrigley Field. 

Next, he allowed a triple to Dylan Lile, and on the first pitch of the following at-bat to Andrés Chapparo, Palencia dropped his glove and doubled over in pain immediately after delivering the pitch. He would leave the game and would later be placed on the 15-day injured list with a shoulder strain.

For a bullpen that’s been middle of the pack in the second half, his injury creates a crucial wrinkle for Chicago as they gear up for the postseason. Palencia has been a huge part of the Cubs’ bullpen success, and now they need to find a viable replacement in their pursuit of a World Series title.

Who Could Replace Palencia?

Well, the answer may be nobody. The Cubs have one of the deepest bullpens in MLB, and they may be better off going game by game and making the pitching decisions on the fly based on the matchups.

There have been three reliable options for Counsell besides Palencia this season, which should help ease the blow a little bit.

Brad Keller has allowed just one run since July 12. In that time, he’s made 24 appearances and struck out 29 batters. There’s a good chance he gets plenty of opportunities to close out games for the Cubs down the stretch.

Drew Pomeranz is on an MLB roster for the first time since 2021, and he has been very good for the Cubs, posting a 2.25 ERA. He’ll continue to have a valuable role in the heart of the bullpen moving forward.

Lastly, Caleb Thielbar has been excellent, especially since the All-Star break where he is posting a 1.40 ERA in 19.1 innings across 23 games. He appears to be the top setup man for Chicago with how good he has been throwing it as of late.

Even with all of this production, the Cubs added Taylor Rogers from the Reds and Andrew Kittredge from the Orioles at the trade deadline. Rogers has struggled since being traded to the Cubs, posting a 5.68 ERA. However, he had a 2.43 ERA before arriving in Chicago, so there’s hope he can get back to his production from earlier in the season.

Kittredge got roughed up in his third outing for the Cubs, giving up four earned runs to the Reds. Since then, however, he’s throwing to a dazzling 1.17 ERA in 16 appearances and has emerged as the Cubs’ primary closer as of late. With how well he has been tossing it lately, he’ll likely receive the lion’s share of closer opportunities down the stretch and into the postseason.

The Return of Porter Hodge

Someone else who can make a difference down the stretch is Porter Hodge. Hodge was far and away the Cubs’ best reliever in 2024. He pitched to a 1.88 ERA in 43 innings of work, striking out 52 batters. He even served as the closer at the end of the season, in a year where the Cubs could not find a suitable fit for that role.

In 2025, however, Hodge has struggled with consistency and staying healthy. After being sent to the 15-day injured list on May 20, he has bounced between the IL, Triple-A, and the MLB level, seeing mixed results.

Most recently, he was recalled from the Iowa Cubs on Aug. 31, and he has looked solid since his arrival. Since being called up, Hodge has a 2.45 ERA in 7.1 innings of work. It’s a small sample size, but the results are promising. He’s proven to be a capable high-leverage arm that the Cubs will lean upon heavily in the coming weeks.

The First Look at the News Cubs Bullpen

Against the Braves on Sept 10, the Cubs’ bullpen got their first chance to show what it would look like without Palencia. Jameson Taillon went 4.1 innings and left the game while the Cubs held a 3-1 lead. Taylor Rogers entered with runners at first and third and one out. He allowed a sacrifice fly to Matt Olson, and then got Ronald Acuña Jr. to ground out, limiting the damage to a single run and preserving the lead.

After getting the first out of the sixth, Rogers was replaced with Hodge, who struck out Ha-Seong Kim and Ozzie Albies to end the inning. Thielbar would be given the seventh inning, retiring three batters in order for a clean inning. Brad Keller entered in the eighth inning, allowing a Matt Olson single but nothing else. Finally, Kittredge came in for the save opportunity and delivered a 1-2-3 inning and a 3-2 W.

There’s a really good chance that is how Craig Counsell will choose to utilize his arms heading into the postseason. While a lot can change between now and then, how Chicago’s relievers throw down the stretch will have a massive impact on what the October bullpen could look like.

What Does This Mean for October?

While losing a lockdown closer like Palencia really hurts, it doesn’t mean that it is time for the Cubs to panic. With the depth the Cubs bullpen possesses and a starting rotation with the eigth-best ERA in MLB, headlined by Matthew Boyd and Cade Horton, the Cubs are a dangerous team come October. 

The Cubs currently hold a 4.5 game advantage over the San Diego Padres for the top wild-card spot and are 5.0 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. The Cubs bullpen has looked really good in the their few tests since losing Palencia. If there is more of that to come, losing their closer may not be as detrimental as it seems.

Stats were taken prior to play on September 16.