How Does Tarik Skubal Compare to Some Great Lefties?

Tarik Skubal is the two-time reigning American League Cy Young winner. Along with Paul Skenes, he is generally regarded as one of the top two pitchers in Major League Baseball. He recently turned 29, so he could very well project to a Hall of Fame career. However, other left-handed starters have had a meteoric burst but then flamed out. Is Skubal more like Johan Santana or Randy Johnson?

How Does Tarik Skubal Compare to Some Great Lefties?

Let’s go into the lab and compare this lefty’s young career to some other great southpaws over the last 40 years. For the sake of time and a more analogous comparison, we will stay away from the star southpaws of yesteryear. So, apologies to Steve Carlton, Whitey Ford, Warren Spahn, Lefty Grove, and other standout lefties. How does Tarik Skubal stack up to the recent great left-handed starting pitchers?

The Back of the Baseball Card

Skubal debuted in 2020 for the Detroit Tigers. His first three years in Motown were fairly average with an ERA hovering in the mid 4’s, a slightly above average WHIP, a high HR rate, and unimpressive WAR numbers. However, he could always mow them down with an average of 9.7 SO/9 from 2020 through 2022. In 2023, the worm started to really turn for this Seattle University product (you read that correctly). That season, in only 15 starts, Tarik had a 2.80 ERA, 102 K’s, 155 ERA+, and a .896 WHIP. Also, his team improved by 12 wins from the previous year.

In 2024, this lefty and the Tigers really took off. He led the American League in pitching WAR (6.4), wins (18), ERA (2.39), K’s (228), ERA+ (174), and FIP (2.49). With a fastball that regularly reaches triple digits, he was dominant, earning unanimous Cy Young honors. Consequently, Detroit went on a furious late-season run that got them into October baseball for the first time in 10 years.

2025 was a similar story for this lefty with AL-best stats: a 6.5 pitching WAR, a 2.21 ERA, a 187 ERA+, 2.45 FIP, and a .891 WHIP. Those smoky numbers resulted in another Cy Young and another playoff visit for the Tigers. Speaking of the playoffs, in six postseason starts over the last two years, Skubal has a 2.04 ERA, 56 K’s, and a .731 WHIP.

Some Comps

The Big Unit

Now, let’s stack Tarik’s tale of the tape to some other lefty starting pitchers over the last half-century. Let’s start with Randy Johnson. Yes, a bit of an unfair comparison, but let’s do it for blanks and giggles. The Big Unit’s total body of work is not going to be replicated by Skubal … 303 wins, 4,875 K’s, 14 seasons of 200+ innings, 5 Cy Youngs, and the Hall of Fame. However, Johnson didn’t have his first great season until age 29, so Skubal is ahead of him in terms of development.

The Painter

How about Tom Glavine? Although drastically different in style from Skubal’s power persona, Glavine broke out in his age-25 season with a Cy Young: an 8.5 WAR, 20 wins, a 2.55 ERA, 246.2 innings, and 153 ERA+. Comparatively, you can see that Skubal’s last two years far exceeded Glavine’s career-best ERA+ mark. Then again, this long-time Brave went on to have two solid decades of pure HOF paint on the corners.

El Gocho

What about the curious case of Johan Santana? Starting at age 24 from 2003 to 2008, fueled by a remarkable changeup, Santana had five seasons of 206+ K’s and 219+ IP, four WHIP titles, four seasons of a 7.1+ WAR, three ERA crowns, and two Cy Youngs. Injuries cut Santana’s career short at 33, and he was subsequently dropped from the HOF ballot after one year in 2018. Could Skubal put up three more seasons at his current pace to match Johan?

Hollywood

Then there is the recently retired Cole Hamels. This Phillie favorite never finished higher than fifth in Cy Young voting, but he did have eight seasons of 200+ IP and a WAR of at least 4.1, five years of 200+ K’s, and four All-Star selections. His stellar 2008 season, which included NLCS and World Series MVP awards, certainly strengthened his resume. Skubal’s last two seasons are probably better than any single season of Cole’s, but can he show the extended durability and reach October glory like Hollywood Hamels?

The Lab Results

Comparing Tarik Skubal to four great lefties over the last several decades creates some interesting observations. Because pitch counts are followed like a teacher’s lesson plans in the modern game, his wins, innings pitched, and strikeout numbers aren’t likely to end in Hall of Fame territory. However, this is a different MLB world now, and advanced metrics like WAR, ERA+, FIP, and WHIP are much more scrutinized than traditional pitching stats. In those areas, Skubal matches up very well with some great lefties. The biggest question is, will his run of excellence peak for a few seasons and flame out, or will Tarik Skubal be a solid southpaw for 15 seasons in MLB?