How Ke'Bryan Hayes Impacts Christian Encarnacion-Strand's Future With Reds

He made the play of the game on Monday night in the Cincinnati Reds win over the Chicago Cubs but could Ke”Bryan Hayes turn out to be the steal of the trade deadline? Ken Rosenthal thinks there’s a chance.

In his Tuesday column, Rosenthal referenced the belief that some have that the Pittsburgh Pirates did well to get out from under Hayes contract. Rosenthal disagreed. One reason is because the contract was front-loaded and the average yearly cost for Hayes for the next four years will be $7.5 million. 

The other reason is because an improvement at the plate seems almost elementary for Hayes at this point.

No player has had a worse OPS in 2025 than Hayes, among players with enough plate appearances to qualify. That’s 157th out of 157 for those of you who are counting. Nowhere to go but up, right?

If he does improve, even just a little, his value with the glove will make this a steal for the Reds. Having a Gold Glove third baseman with even below average hitting ability would be worth more than $7.5 million a year. That’s what the Reds will owe him through 2029.

The bigger question becomes what the future holds for Noelvi Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. A glove like Hayes is the kind you want playing every day. Spencer Steer seemingly has locked down first base. So, where do two of the most exciting prospects the Reds have had move to? And where does Sal Stewart fit into all of this?

First of all, I love the idea of Stewart, but he is even less proven than Encarnacion-Strand or Marte. So how he fits in will be determined in the years to come. He is talented, but he will need to prove he belongs before anyone is making a place for him.

When it comes to Marte, I believe his athleticism will play well in right field. This will take a while to figure out, and he could even push for everyday playing time there (his bat has a great argument). He will need to continue improving on his ball-tracking ability and route running, but he has a real shot.

Encarnacion-Strand may be the odd man out. As much as it pains me to write this, he hasn’t done anything to deserve anything beyond a fill-in opportunity. One grand slam at Fenway Park does not give a guy everyday playing time, as cool as it was.

Going back to Hayes at the plate for a minute to compare to Encarnacion-Strand, he has seen a decrease in his contact rate this year. Hayes is making contact 81% of the time where had an 84% contact rate last year. He has made contact with 81% of the pitches he’s seen in his career, though, so that’s kind of the expectation.

Encarnacion-Strand has a career contact rate of 73%. He has also increased the percentage of pitches outside the zone that he swings at, AND has decreased the number of pitches inside the zone that he’s swinging at, in and of themselves, not great. All together makes me think he just isn’t very good at pitch recognition.

So the Reds may have actually done something we’ve wanted them to do for awhile: admit defeat on the “potential factor.” Encarnacion-Strand has a glowing scouting report loaded with tales of his expected power. Reality has been far less kind. It is on him to change everyone’s mind at this point as the Reds have found their answers in the corner infield, for now.