How Mets' struggles have impacted their odds of making the postseason

While the Mets still have seven games left with the Phillies and are 4-2 against them this season, 5.5 games is a lot of ground to make up in a seven-week span. With the Mets facing a tougher schedule than Philadelphia the rest of the way, their division odds declined from nearly 75% on June 12th to 10% today according to FanGraphs.

The Mets' Odds Of Making The Postseason Haven't Decreased Too Much

While the Mets' extended slump has likely cost them the division, it hasn't done too much damage to their postseason hopes. The Mets entered Monday in playoff position, holding the third Wild Card spot in the National League with a 1.5 game lead on the Cincinnati Reds, including a pivotal two-game lead in the loss column.

FanGraphs has the Mets' odds of making the postseason at 76.8%, which is a reflection of both the Mets' overall positioning (which was enhanced by their strong first 2.5 months of the season) and the relative mediocrity of the three teams chasing them for that last Wild Card spot.

The St. Louis Cardinals are only one game above .500 and the San Francisco Giants are at .500, with each team sitting at 59 total losses. The Mets' four-game lead on them in that department combined with the fact they won the season series against both teams means they have essentially a five game cushion on those two.

The biggest threat at the moment is Cincinnati, which has been hot of late and won two out of three against the Mets at Citi Field in July. The Reds do have one of the toughest schedules left in baseball, however, with 31 of their remaining 43 games coming against teams with winning records, including six games with Milwaukee and three against Philadelphia this week.

While the Mets still need to play better to reach the postseason, the math suggests they are in a strong position to reach the postseason for the third time in four years. Anything can happen once the playoffs start, but the Mets are in much better shape to get there than one would think after watching them for the past two months.