How the Houston Astros Can Still Make the Playoffs

The Houston Astros season has completely turned upside down over the last few weeks, and the reality of this team missing the postseason for the first time since 2016 is very much possible. It would be the end of an amazing eight straight years of playing in October. The Astros’ division hopes ended up getting destroyed last weekend after getting swept by Seattle, who just won the American League West for the first time since 2001. 

How the Astros Can Make the Postseason

The only way Houston makes the postseason is by being a wild-card team. Houston is currently on the outside of the playoff bracket if the season were to end today. Good thing it doesn’t for Astros fans, and there are 162 games to be played.

They trail the Detroit Tigers by one game and the Boston Red Sox by two games. The Astros are currently in Anaheim, ready to take on the Los Angeles Angels. Meanwhile, the Tigers and Red Sox play each other.

The basic equation is that the Astros have to sweep the Los Angeles Angels, and it is likely that they will get into the playoffs. 

The scenarios with the Astros sweeping the Angels for them to make the playoffs:

Detroit going 0-3 or 1-2

Boston going 0-3 (Detroit going 3-0)

Basically, the Astros cannot have the Tigers winning the series 2-1 vs the Red Sox. Any other result, and the Astros make the postseason if they sweep the Angels. 

A Wild Scenario

The Red Sox, Cleveland Guardians, Tigers, and Astros could all end up with the same 88-74 record. This would happen if the Guardians win two out of three, the Tigers take two of three, and the Astros, of course, sweep. In this scenario, even if the Astros win out, that would not be enough. There is a decent chance of this happening as well. 

The Guardians would win the AL Central, and the Tigers and Red Sox would make it. The Astros are out in that case because they didn’t win the head-to-head over any of them and have the worst winning percentage against them.

The other option involves the Guardians. If the Tigers win their series 2-1, the Astros can still make it if the Guardians lose the series 1-2 to the Texas Rangers. That is unlikely. 

What to Watch For

The series Astros fans must keep a close eye on is the Tigers vs. Red Sox. That is a must-win for both of those clubs as well, giving it a playoff feel at Fenway Park this weekend. Houston would probably want to support the Red Sox, with them being at home and former Astros legend Alex Bregman leading them. 

The Tigers on a recent skid certainly helps as well. The Tigers losing is the best and most likely outcome fans can root for. Detroit continuing their losing ways gives the Astros the most likely chance of playing in October. 

Now, if the Astros lose their series, postseason chances are done. That much is quite obvious. 

Any Other Way the Astros Could Make the Playoffs

If the Astros are unable to sweep, but still win the series 2-1, it is still possible Houston could make it to the playoffs. The Tigers would have to get swept by the Red Sox, or the Guardians would have to get swept by the Rangers, which is very unlikely. 

The Astros just have a 29% chance of making the postseason according to Fangraphs. That’s low, but things can change very quickly in baseball. First, Houston has to win on Friday. If they lose and the Tigers and Guardians win, the season is over. If the Astros can open their series against the Halos with a victory, that puts more pressure on other teams on the bubble. 

You never know in this sport, but it is safe to say it will be a tension-filled weekend for these clubs and their fans.