Hunter Goodman Could Regress at the Plate Next Season

He has certainly made a strong case to be the Rockies’ catcher of the future. But year-to-year consistency can be hard when hitting at altitude. This article will take a look at the chances of Goodman experiencing offensive regression next season after a stellar offensive performance this year.

Is Regression in Store for Hunter Goodman?

Goodman went out and took the full-time catcher position this spring. In 45 at-bats in Cactus League play, Goodman hit a scorching .444/.500/.822 with an otherworldly 1.322 OPS. He had shown his potential to be a power hitter for the Rockies in his first full season in 2024, hitting 13 home runs in 211 at-bats over 70 games. However, his production reached a new level this season. This is made even more impressive by the fact that the improvement is coinciding with his debut season as a full-time catcher.

With a little less than a month left in the regular season, Goodman could finish with 35+ home runs. No Rockie has finished with at least 32 home runs in the regular season since Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, and Trevor Story in 2019. Goodman is an absolute bargain for the Rockies this season, earning $765K on a one-year deal per Spotrac. At just 25 years old, heading into his second season of arbitration, Goodman will undoubtedly be due a raise. But will past Rockies in similar situations give the front office pause when it comes time to negotiate a possible extension?

The Cautionary Tale of Michael Toglia and Nolan Jones

Nolan Jones

The Rockies have been mired in mediocrity since 2019. But Goodman’s breakout performance is not the first time a young Rockie has shown the makings of a future offensive star in Major League Baseball. When Nolan Jones arrived with the Rockies, his sample size in the majors was minimal. In his first full season with the Rockies in 2023, Jones was one of the top rookies in the National League.

Jones hit a scorching .297/.389/.542 with an excellent .931 OPS. His 20 home runs and 62 RBI were second and fourth on the Rockies, respectively. Jones’ 4.3 WAR easily led the Rockies. The next closest was veteran third baseman Ryan McMahon‘s 2.9 WAR. Jones is also an excellent outfielder defensively. It all added up to Jones seemingly being in line for a massive payday. The Rockies had swindled the Cleveland Guardians and found a future star in a minor trade.

Per Statcast, Jones was in the 94th percentile league-wide with a 29 batting run value and a 15.7% barrel rate in 2023. But his production plummeted across the board the following season. He dealt with injuries all year, playing in only 79 games. Jones’ batting run value and barrel rate dropped to -5 and 5.9%, respectively. His OPS dropped to a below-average .641, resulting in just three home runs. Additionally, his batting average and WAR dropped to .227 and -0.7, respectively. Jones looked nothing like the player he had been the year prior. But with Jones still making around $740K each season, Colorado easily traded him back to the Guardians this spring.

This season, Jones has hit just .214, and his OPS has dropped even further to .609. Meanwhile, utility man Tyler Freeman, who was traded for Jones, has been excellent for the Rockies, hitting .281 with a .718 OPS. The Rockies were heavily criticized when this trade was announced, but they are the clear winners of the deal. They are being rewarded for exercising patience before giving Jones a long-term extension. But they would face the same situation in 2024 with first baseman Michael Toglia.

Michael Toglia

Following an up-and-down 2023 in a limited number of games, Toglia broke out as a major offensive producer in the 2024 season. Over 399 at-bats, he posted a .767 OPS with 25 home runs and 55 RBI. His 25 home runs were second on the Rockies behind only star shortstop Ezequiel Tovar (26 home runs). But Toglia achieved his 25 home runs in 41 fewer games than Tovar. Toglia’s 2.2 WAR was fourth on the Rockies. It appeared the 26-year-old Toglia was finally the Rockies’ answer to the turnstile at first base. But in 2024, Toglia masked being in the bottom four percent in both whiff % and K% per Statcast with excellent power production.

Toglia was in the top nine percent in numerous offensive categories, including the 98th percentile with a 17.3% barrel rate. He was talked about in the offseason as a major breakout candidate for Colorado. But when the power didn’t show up this season, Toglia’s K-rate reared its ugly head, resulting in a disastrous season in which he has experienced multiple demotions to Triple-A Albuquerque.

Toglia is in the bottom one percent per Statcast with an 18% squared-up rate, 37.2% whiff rate, and 38.6% K rate. He has only 11 home runs in 302 at-bats this season. Yet again, the Rockies were hit with a cold dose of reality when it comes to gauging young players playing at high altitude. But also, like with Jones, it was wise not to immediately reward Toglia with a long-term extension.

Will Goodman Be Next?

Goodman’s excellent season deserves a lot of praise. He has been one of the brightest spots in an incredibly tough season for the Rockies. But he is very similar to Jones’ 2023 season in certain areas. Goodman ranks in the 94th percentile with a 27 batting run value and 83rd percentile with a 13.2% barrel rate.

Like Toglia, Goodman is in the bottom 15% percent league-wide with a 36.7% chase rate, 32.4% whiff rate, and 26.6% K rate. Goodman does have a far better batting average than Toglia at .282. But his xBA of .251 is more in line with his career .248 BA. Excellent production masks offensive deficiencies. But in just his first full season as a primary catcher, it is unfair to expect this level of production next season from Goodman.

Managing Expectations

Goodman’s 3.3 WAR is fourth among catchers league-wide. Goodman is the only catcher besides Raleigh among the top nine catchers in WAR in the bottom 15% in both whiff rate and K rate. But Raleigh is in the top six percent league-wide with a .556 xSLG, 19.3% barrel rate, and 13.4% BB rate. Goodman is in the 76th percentile with a .481 xSLG, 13.2% barrel rate (83rd percentile), and 5.7% BB rate (16th percentile).

This is not to disparage Goodman by comparing him to a top American League MVP candidate and the best catcher in baseball. It is just to help paint a picture of what to realistically expect from Goodman next season. He is still only 25 and in his third MLB season overall. If he does not see the same kind of production offensively, some of his offensive deficiencies could become more glaring.

Hunter Goodman has massively exceeded expectations this season and has been the best hitter on the Rockies. Even if he doesn’t reach the heights of being a top-five catcher offensively next season, it doesn’t mean he is a bad player all of a sudden. It means he is a young player in his second season as a primary catcher, dealing with the difficulties of hitting at altitude. Goodman could very well be the catcher of the future for the Rockies and have another excellent season offensively in 2026. But don’t blame the Rockies if they exercise caution before giving him a big extension. They have history to point to, and it’s not fair to them or Goodman to expect that this offseason.