Is Kyle Tucker Worth $400M This Offseason?

Injuries are unfortunately a common occurrence in Tucker’s career. He has missed 115 games in the last three seasons, averaging out to 38.3 missed games per season. The only other $400 million man who is routinely hurt is Mike Trout, and he signed that contract with the Angels back in March 2019. Up until that point, Trout had played in 90.3% of his games from 2012-2018 (1025/1134), excluding his rookie season in 2011, where he was called up late and only played in 40 games that season. Trout also averaged 8.4 fWAR per season with a 174 wRC+ and a 1.004 OPS average in those seven years as well.

Tucker, in his career 769 games, including the 2020 Covid-shortened season, has played in 64.4% of his games (769 out of 1194). Yes, you read that correctly, Tucker has missed 423 games in his career due to injury.

Potential Defensive Limitations

Tucker’s been exclusively playing Right Field since 2021; the last time he played Left Field was in 2020, and he last played Center Field in 2021. Tucker graded out as a below-average defender this season in Right Field with -1 Defensive Runs Saved, -2 Outs Above Average, and -2 Fielding Run Value according to Fangraphs. He was also only in the 26th percentile in sprint speed according to Baseball Savant. As a centerfielder back in 2021, he had -1 DRS, -1 OAA, and -1 FRV in 28 innings out there. In that 2020 Covid-shortened season, Tucker played 352 innings in Left Field and had 3 DRS, 4 OAA, and -1 FRV.

The Bat is SPECIAL, Though

There’s a reason why Tucker is rumored to make $400M this offseason, and a majority of that is because of his elite bat. Over the last three seasons, he has averaged a .278 batting average with a .892 OPS, 147 wRC+, and 4.5 fWAR per season. In comparison to the rest of the majors, he has the 7th best wRC+ at 147, the 8th best OPS at .892, an average of 23 stolen bases a season, and a sub 15% strikeout rate over this time frame. Which would make him a top 10 hitter in the sport, on top of the stolen base upside, and having a close to 14% walk rate as well.

What Does Kyle Tucker Get This Offseason and From Who?

Tucker probably gets anywhere from $35-40M annually, and his contract most likely ranges from 8-12 years. All in all, that would put him in the range of $280M-$480M.

The New York Yankees could use a Robin for Aaron Judge. They had one with Juan Soto in 2024 when they made it to the World Series against the Dodgers. Then he departed for the Mets last offseason for the largest contract in American sports history at 15 years and $765M.

The Philadelphia Phillies could use a new right fielder. Nick Castellanos is seemingly on his way out of Philadelphia this offseason, by way of getting either salary dumped or just straight up released/designated for assignment.

You can never count out the Los Angeles Dodgers since they are always looking to spend money. They have legitimate outfield concerns outside of Teoscar Hernandez manning one of their corner positions. Michael Conforto didn’t work out, to put it lightly. Andy Pages’ second-half struggles, including his disappointing offensive performance in the postseason, left a lot to be desired.

At least for Pages, he did make an insanely clutch leaping catch to continue the Dodgers season in the bottom of the 9th against the Blue Jays in Game 7 of the World Series. This was a game in which they ultimately ended up winning 5-4 after 11 innings. The Dodgers became back to back World Series champions, so all is good for Pages in Dodgers land.

It would be a pleasant surprise if Tucker didn’t join a big market team, as they’re usually the teams that shell out contracts of this magnitude. You can’t unequivocally rule out a small-market team like the Rays in the Tucker sweepstakes, as he’s from Tampa, Florida. The Rays could definitely use another bat to pair down there with Junior Caminero coming off his breakout sophomore season. They also just recently sold to a new ownership group as well, so maybe things are finally changing down there for the better; we’ll all see at the end of the day, though.

End Of My Kyle Tucker Rant

Teams could also be skeptical of Tucker since he doesn’t have the greatest postseason track record (a career .233 batting average and .692 OPS in the postseason). He was never the guy on the Astros, and he more so makes sense as a Robin and not so much as a Batman. The problem with that is, everyone who’s made $400M has been the guy on their team. Can Tucker finally spread his wings and become that type of hitter for his new team this offseason?