Is next year make or break for Cardinals' Jack Flaherty?

Jack Flaherty posted a 3.01 ERA, 29.8% strikeout rate, and 8.2% walk rate over 347 1/3 innings during the 2018-19 seasons, finishing fifth in NL Rookie Of The Year voting in 2018 and then fourth in Cy Young Award voting in 2019.  After coming up through the Cardinals’ farm system as a top-100 ranked prospect, it certainly looked like Flaherty was living up to that potential, and establishing himself as a frontline pitcher in St. Louis heading into the next decade.

Since then, however, things haven’t gone nearly as smoothly.  He was one of several Cardinals sidelined by a COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, missing four weeks of an already shortened season and finishing with a 4.91 ERA over 40 1/3 innings.  Unfortunately, abbreviated seasons became the trend for Flaherty, as he has tossed only 114 1/3 innings over 26 games since the start of the 2021 campaign.

An oblique strain and a shoulder strain limited Flaherty to 78 1/3 frames in 2021, and the shoulder problems carried over into 2022 when Flaherty needed a PRP injection to deal with bursitis during Spring Training.  The recovery time and prerequisite ramp-up time delayed Flaherty’s season debut until June, but another shoulder strain just a couple of weeks later resulted in another visit to the 60-day injured list.  He was able to return for five starts and a relief appearance in September/October, but Flaherty banked only 36 total innings last season.

Adding to Flaherty’s frustration is the fact that he has been pretty effective when on the mound, particularly prior to his oblique strain in 2021.  The righty had a 3.54 ERA/4.26 SIERA over those 114 1/3 innings in the last two seasons, despite the mostly stop-and-start nature of his appearances.  One can only imagine how well Flaherty might have been able to pitch had he been healthy, and how an in-form version of Flaherty might’ve helped the Cardinals (winless in three postseason games in those seasons) make more of an impact in the playoffs.

Considering the small sample sizes involved, it’s hard to extrapolate much from Flaherty’s lackluster Statcast metrics in the last two years, though he at least still had above-average strikeout and walk rates in 2021.  Put simply, Flaherty’s most important statistic in 2023 will be innings pitched, since good health is his only path back to true front-of-the-rotation status, or even just being a consistent member of a big league rotation.

Now entering his third and final year of salary arbitration, Flaherty’s setbacks had a significant impact on his earning potential.  He won an arb hearing over the Cardinals to earn a $3.9MM salary in 2021, and then avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $5MM salary last season.  With so few innings to build on in 2022, Flaherty is projected to earn only a minimal raise of up to $5.1MM for the coming season.

On the plus side, just one healthy and effective season can still line Flaherty up for a hefty contract in free agency next winter.  Flaherty doesn’t even turn 28 until October, so there are several prime seasons still theoretically available for any team interested in paying a premium.  In this scenario, Flaherty’s agents at CAA Sports might even seek a multi-year with an early opt-out clause, which would allow Flaherty to re-enter the market prior to his age-30 or age-31 season.

But, first things first — Flaherty has to avoid any more lengthy trips to the IL.  Rotation-mate Steven Matz is in the same boat after an injury-marred 2022 season, and Matz and Flaherty are projected to pitch at the back end of a St. Louis rotation that also includes Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright, and Jordan Montgomery.  Such pitchers as Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Jake Woodford, and Zack Thompson are also on hand for depth, and while the Cardinals are certainly prioritizing winning over auditioning younger pitchers, the team may feel some pressure to see what they have in their controllable arms.  Matz is the only member of the projected starting five who is under contract beyond 2023, as Flaherty, Montgomery, Wainwright (who might retire), and Mikolas are all free agents.

With this many rotation holes to address, it seems probable that the Cardinals will broach an extension with at least one pitcher this spring, yet Flaherty is probably the least likely to work out a long-term deal.  Based on his lack of innings or real results in the last two seasons, Flaherty probably doesn’t want to risk undercutting his earning potential in advance of what he naturally hopes will be a rebound season, and the Cards likewise might not want to make a big investment in a pitcher who has been such an injury magnet for two years running.

It sets the stage for an intriguing season for the 27-year-old righty, as Flaherty might be heading into his final year in St. Louis regardless of how well he pitches.  Either another injury-plagued year leads the Cardinals to move on, or Flaherty might himself depart for a big free agent contract on the heels of a successful bounce-back campaign.