Is Shohei Ohtani Still the NL MVP Front-Runner?

How Shohei Ohtani's Injury Affects the NL MVP Race

This season, Ohtani has thrown his most innings since 2023 at 85.2, and maintains a sparkling 1.79 ERA and 2.61 FIP. Unfortunately, he doesn't have enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, and with this latest injury, he will likely be out of the NL Cy Young race.

But what about NL MVP? Ohtani has won three consecutive MVP awards (2023 in the American League, 2024 and 2025 in the National League), and if it weren't for Aaron Judge's historic 2022 season, he would have five consecutive MVPs. This year, he is once again the overwhelming favorite to win the award, especially with his two-way play looking the strongest it ever has on the pitching side.

Alongside those fantastic pitching numbers, Ohtani is hitting .290/.398/.540 with 22 home runs, 66 runs scored and a 153 wRC+, which greatly compliments his pitching dominance. However, that offensive production is not quite as impressive as his 2025 season, when he hit .282/.392/.622 with 55 home runs and a 172 wRC+ while rounding that out with 47 innings on the mound.

With Ohtani shut down from pitching for now and not quite as productive offensively as he was in previous seasons, other MVP hopefuls may have an opportunity.

The most notable is Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Chicago Cubs; after a slow start to the season, the center fielder is suddenly providing Willie Mays-caliber play. Crow-Armstrong is hitting .365/.465/.731 with 15 home runs, 13 stolen bases and an unfathomable 222 wRC+ since May 30, all while playing Platinum Glove-level defense in center. He's totaled 4.3 fWAR over that span, and his 5.9 fWAR on the season is by far the highest in MLB.

Other dark horse candidates include Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies and James Wood of the Washington Nationals. The former was runner-up in NL MVP voting last year and currently leads MLB with 33 home runs; the Phillies have charged up the standings thanks to his efforts. The latter currently boasts 4.4 fWAR (fourth-best in MLB) alongside a .275/.405/.563 slash line, 28 home runs and 15 stolen bases, transforming Washington's lineup into one of the best in baseball.

However, for as impressive as Crow-Armstrong, Schwarber and Wood have been, Ohtani's status as MVP favorite has not been significantly threatened even with this injury. What he's been able to do both at the plate and on the mound in the first half alone gives him a near-impenetrable case, and this may be the best two-way play we've ever seen from him. At worst, Ohtani's injury may have opened the door a crack for a 2022 Judge-type season to dethrone him.

This means Crow-Armstrong would need to continue his otherworldly play while Ohtani isn't pitching to reset the conversation. If he cools off and/or Ohtani returns to the mound and continues to dominate, then Ohtani should once again coast to the trophy.