Apr 16, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Mitchell Parker (70) delivers a pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the first inning at PNC Park. Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Is Young Washington Nationals Pitcher's Surprising Breakout Sustainable?

Originally posted on Washington Nationals on SI
By Tyler Maher | Last updated Apr 18, 2025 11:40 AM ET

The Washington Nationals are off to a disappointing start after going 7-12 to open the season.

However, there have been several bright spots so far, from James Wood's superstar transformation to Kyle Finnegan's dominance in the bullpen.

Several young Nationals players have taken a step forward this season, including starting pitcher Mitchell Parker.

After going 7-10 with a 4.29 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP and 0.7 WAR in 29 starts last year as a rookie, Parker is off to a much better start this season. Over his first four outings, the 25-year-old lefty is 2-1 with a 1.85 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and 1.1 WAR.

Has Parker made an actual leap this year? Or is he just benefitting from early-season luck?

Based on his peripherals, the latter seems more likely.

Mitchell Parker, K'ing the Side in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/7sAcqARv0K
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 16, 2025

For starters, his strikeout rate is down from last year and his walk rate is up, which isn't a good sign. His 1.8 K/BB ratio is considerably worse than last season's 3.1 mark.

Despite showing worse command, Parker is benefitting from better batted-ball luck, which doesn't appear sustainable. Opponents are batting .202 against him largely due to their .236 BABIP, which is 54 points below the league average and 67 points lower than his .303 mark from last year.

The lower BABIP seems likely to regress given that opponents are actually making harder contact against Parker this year. Their average exit velocity is up from 88.7 mph to 89.2 mph, and their hard-hit rate is up from 39.1% to 44.4%.

None of that is good news for Parker.

The one encouraging sign in his profile is his ground-ball rate, which has improved from 37.4% to 47.3%. If he can keep his pitches down and consistently generate grounders, that will allow him to outperform his peripherals. He's only allowed one home run in 24.1 innings, so limiting mistakes and keeping the ball in the park will be key.

Parker has faced two tough opponents this year and two easy ones, so the jury is still out. He doesn't seem like a demonstrably better pitcher than last year -- he's just been getting luckier.

Offense is typically down this time of year, so he'll be truly tested once the weather warms up and the ball starts flying. He also has two challenging matchups coming up next week against the Baltimore Orioles and New York Mets, so his likely regression may occur well before that.

This article first appeared on Washington Nationals on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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