It's Judge-ment Day for Dinger Tuesday

Just like that, it's Dinger Tuesday again. Last week was a doozy, as we got two of three correct, including Luis Rengifo at +630. We were also able to rack up a nice credit of free bets, as FanDuel's promotion offers you $5 back for every HR hit in the game where you've bet on a batter to hit a home run. 

The weather forecast is looking favorable in a few cities today for long bombs, and we've circled just the games and guys to go yard. Yes, we've also parlayed all three just for fun.

Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies

Correct us if we're mistaken, but haven't we been here before? Just last week these two teams were facing off on a Tuesday with homer weather blowing through town, and here we are again. The Philadelphia wind is offering us a +28% boost to homers, according to Ballpark Pal, one of the higher percentages we've seen for this metric. That makes this game between the Reds and Phillies a no-brainer to bet a HR prop on, and we've got our target secured.

Rhys Hoskins +310

Now we know we've been here before. Hoskins was our selection last week and he delivered with two home runs. When scanning the Philadelphia lineup, their bats don't seem to have the typical power against LHP, which they'll see today in Nick Lodolo. That's why Hoskins is the clear choice for us. His ISO, average and HRs/at bat are all much higher when seeing a lefty on the mound. Hoskins hasn't hit a homer since the two he hit last Tuesday. That sounds like a guy due for another. Hoskins has 26 HRs on the year, and 6 of Lodolo's 7 home runs allowed this year have been to right-handed batters.

New York Mets @ New York Yankees

Not far behind in the projected boost to HR department is the Subway Series between the Mets and Yankees. The Bronx weather is suggesting we'll see a 26% increase in homers, which suits these clubs quite well. We would have been scared off by this game if Jacob deGrom was on the mound, but we've avoided that for today. Our choice is a chalky one but that doesn't make it wrong.

Aaron Judge +200

Judge has cooled off a bit after a blistering stretch saw him hit 13 HRs in 20 games. Judge went nine straight games without hitting one yard, but that changed last night, and it feels like it's time for a streak to build. Judge has seen Mets starter Taijuan Walker 12 times and has hit three home runs off him. He has no other hits against Walker, just three homers. We're a sucker for history like that, and we've seen Judge hit HRs in bunches before. We'll give the Yankees slugger a go this evening.

Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies

We have two pitchers who have surrendered a decent chunk of home runs pitching tonight in Colorado. Dane Dunning will get the start for the Rangers while German Marquez is on the bump for the Rockies. So often that Colorado air has helped aid high-scoring affairs, and the weather is projecting a solid 12% boost to HRs. Our focus is on the Rangers. As a team, they've hit the ninth-most HRs this season. Marquez has seen 21 homers hit off him, which is good for eighth-most in the league.

Marcus Semien +310

As we sift through the choices on Texas, we've settled with Marcus Semien. Semien has 19 home runs this year and has been going deep on the road at a solid clip lately, hitting four HRs in his past nine away games. 79% of Semien's HRs have been off RHP, and 53% of Marquez's homers allowed have been off the bat of a righty. It's enough for us to go with the Rangers shortstop as our third and final selection for Dinger Tuesday.

Good luck tonight! These three parlayed together, if you're feeling daring, comes in at +4943 on FanDuel.

In the news...

Baker Mayfield officially the starter — We mentioned this last week as soon-to-be reality, but Baker Mayfield has officially been named the Week 1 starter for the Carolina Panthers. His first opponent? Yup, the Cleveland Browns. We fully expect Mayfield to come out with a massive chip on his shoulder and do everything he can to make his former team look silly. The Panthers are currently -1.5 favorites at home against the Browns. We actually like that bet quite a bit, particularly with Jacoby Brissett starting in place of the suspended Deshaun Watson.

The latest around Donovan Mitchell — It's been all quiet on the NBA front for a few weeks now, and time is running out for a few league-altering trades to go down. One to keep an eye on is the fate of Utah Jazz star guard Donovan Mitchell. The latest report suggests that the Jazz turned down a trade from the Knicks that included five first-round picks, Obi Toppin and Evan Fournier. Apparently, Danny Ainge wants those picks to all belong to the Knicks and to all be unprotected. That may be a lot to ask, but if New York thinks Mitchell lifts them into the status as Eastern Conference contenders, perhaps they pull the trigger anyway. As it stands, New York is +4500 to win the East, which is behind nine other teams. Those odds would skyrocket should they grab Mitchell. So if you believe a trade is imminent, now is probably the time to buy.

Albert Pujols homers again, inching closer to 700 for his career — Something amazing is happening in St. Louis. The Cardinals won last night over the Cubs 1-0, with the lone run being a solo shot off the bat of 42-year-old Albert Pujols. It's Pujols' seventh home run since Aug. 10, and suddenly 700 career homers is becoming a very real possibility. Pujols currently sits at 693. He'll get two chances today to add to that total, as the Cardinals find themselves in a doubleheader against the Cubs. Keep an eye on lineups for the next few weeks, and don't be afraid to sprinkle a bet on a Pujols homer when the timing feels right. If he keeps up this streak, the 700 watch will officially commence and it's a safe bet that some betting promotions will follow.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll